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View Diary: Mark Hanna's no toss up 2012 Senate Race Predictions - Part 2 (33 comments)

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  •  Tossups (1+ / 0-)
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    Several probably do belong in that category and it depends on how much emphasis we give to certain factors in deciding which way they tilt. These would be VA, IN, ND, MT, MA. Though it could be argued that CT, AZ and MO belong there too. But, sticking with the first group, I still get the feeling the top of the ticket is likely to make a massive difference. And in North Dakota and Montana in particular I think we need to see significant polling leads going into election day if the Democratic candidates are going to win despite Romney's victory margin. Obviously the opposite is true in MA and to a lesser extent in NV.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sat Sep 15, 2012 at 09:20:26 AM PDT

    •  In Montana, I think that's true (1+ / 0-)
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      But I think Berg is a weaker candidate than any of us anticipated, whereas as someone else noted, I think Heitkamp is our strongest recruit of the cycle. So I think she's more likely to buck the trend than Tester.

      By the way, just to address some of the criticism, I of course love Jon Tester and am rooting for him all the way. I think Montana is probably the most "tossup" of any of the states right now.

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