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View Diary: End the Nuclear Threat in the Middle East (45 comments)

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  •  Nukes work because you can never use them (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PrahaPartizan, Anne Elk

    The concept behind nuclear weapons is deterrence. Back in the Cold War days, the Soviets and the US prevented war by assuring the other side would be bombed into radioactive slag if they tried anything. So possessing a nuclear weapon means never being able to deploy one because if you did, any surviving nation with a nuke left would turn your country into a parking lot.

    Now there is a legitimate threat from non-nation state actors getting a nuclear device. But if there is a return address on a nuke, that country who used the weapon is assured of their own destruction.  

    Nuclear technology is almost 70 years old now. Any nation willing to devote the resources to build a nuke can do so. Iran will have its nuke if it really wants one. But I bet Israel has lots more nuclear weapons and systems to deploy them today than Iran will have in decades to come.

    •  Not to Mention Nuclear Fingerprints (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      corvo

      From what I recall, you don't even need a nuclear address on the weapon or device.  Every nation's tech teams tend to leave technical fingerprints on their designs which reveal just who built the weapon.  If some nations in dispute suddenly find that one nation's weapon is used even in terrorist attack, the world will be able to pinpoint just whose weapon that was in short order.  That's why loose nukes are such a problem, because a third-party not involved in a dispute but with terrible security could find one of its weapons being used after multiple trades in the global weapons black market.  I'm pretty sure that's everyone's nightmare scenario.

      "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

      by PrahaPartizan on Sun Sep 16, 2012 at 09:49:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am guessing that a lot of those fingerprints (0+ / 0-)

        get erased in the thermonuclear fireball. But the big problem with the idea that a country like Iran or anyone else would give or sell a nuke to anyone is loss of control. You build a highly controlled, extremely technological, enormously expensive national program and you say, "sure, have one of ours! No, it's OK; you can do whatever you like with it." I don't think so. Nations, even abnormal, arguably crazy ones don't do that.

        For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

        by Anne Elk on Sun Sep 16, 2012 at 11:46:25 AM PDT

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        •  Exactly the Opposite (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Anne Elk, splintersawry

          Actually, it's the detonation which reveals the nature of the design.  It all depends on the ratios of  isotopes and daughter elements which come out of a nuclear detonation.  The different technical teams will choose to use different materials from different sources, which can be assayed.  I agree that no national government with anything resembling typical governmental control will give a terrorist organization a nuclear weapon.  It's more likely that a terrorist group could source a weapon from a national government which was collapsing around itself, enabling everyone in the loop to adopt an "everyman for himself" approach to life as they seek personal advantage.  In retrospect, we can see that such an approach is the standard Republican theology to life.  Whatever it takes!

          "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

          by PrahaPartizan on Sun Sep 16, 2012 at 02:12:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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