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View Diary: AWESOME PPP POLLS...Obama VA 51-46, Warren MA 48-46 (UPDATED) (244 comments)

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  •  As someone who stupidly bought into that (17+ / 0-)

    theory in 2010, I have to agree. Election night was painfully long in 2010. I still remember that sick feeling in the pit of my stomach as I watched us lose the House.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Sun Sep 16, 2012 at 06:56:32 PM PDT

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    •  Exactly, and me too. (10+ / 0-)

      However much some here might want to make fun of the right doubting the polls, and oh so sure that it's all a matter of Democratic over sampling, I remember us sounding exactly the same in 2010, only our big cry then was that they weren't sampling cell phones.

      Josh Marshall has it right.  Polling has become so sophisticated, particularly when you get into aggregate polling, which smooths out the outliers, that it's seldom wrong anymore.

      Only when a race is truly neck and neck, are the polls inconsequential, except to tell us it's neck and neck.  And the presidential race ain't neck and neck right now, not in the electoral college, where it counts.  

      "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

      by StellaRay on Sun Sep 16, 2012 at 08:08:19 PM PDT

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      •  There are a handful of races.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, elwior

        ....that can be tough to poll, like New Jersey and Hawaii, for a variety of reasons. Also, primary polls for lesser known candidates can vary wildly, which is how a mostly unknown Barack Obama went from third in the polls to a huge upset win, back in 2004 Senate primary.  Mostly, though, pollsters with good reputations and solid results tend to accurately forecast major races.

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