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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Tammy Baldwin pulls into lead while Tommy Thompson rests (173 comments)

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  •  Coakley is actually very polular: as AG, but (1+ / 0-)
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    The Caped Composer

    somehow Senator was too much for some voters (it seems that Governor is too).  It is true that there were other factors:
    - Coakley ran a poor campaign (taking a vacation after the primaries in such a short race was a killer)
    - The Democrats (state and national) bungled the race until it was too late
    - There was a lot of anger at incumbents because of the economic crash and Coakley represented the incumbent (Democrat) while Brown cast himself as the outsider
    - Turnout: the scheduling in the winter ended up with a pretty decent turnout at 2.25 million, but the Democratic voters did not show up at the rates that Coakley needed

    Yet, I think if it had been AG Michael Coakley against Brown, Coakley might have still won.

    The good news is that Warren has run a great grassroots campaign (even if her ads have been weak), shown that she will work hard and deal with the issues, is an outsider as she never has been in elected office (who's the incumbent that people can be angry at now?), the gender gap (Coakley only won among women by 53-46%, whereas recent polls have Warren at 15-20% advantage among women - thanks to the War on Women - TM), and finally the turnout will be at least 3 million (perhaps as high as 3.3 million) which will help tremendously.

    Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

    by DefendOurConstitution on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 09:47:17 AM PDT

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