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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Did Mitt Romney really fumble away the election yesterday? (254 comments)

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  •  with CO it really is just the lousy pollsters-- (6+ / 0-)

    while I'm disappointed (as a CO expat) that the state isn't put away at this point, O is up 4-6 per the internals that Cook is reporting, and that sounds right to me.  CO is not going to be a tipping point state; it's not in the same tier as FL for instance.  

    •  Isn't there a big Mormon population in CO? (1+ / 0-)
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      •  Not really. Bigger than other states, but IIRC (1+ / 0-)
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        only about 4% of it's population.  

        We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

        by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 08:46:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Mark Udall is a Mormon (0+ / 0-)

        As is his cousin Tom, Senators from Colorado & NM respectively.  Being a Mormon isn't an absolute guarantee of heinousness, though there's probably some correlation there.  But the Mormon population of Colorado isn't hugely big, though there is some, thanks to sharing a border with Utah.

        There's also Colorado Springs and its various RW lunacy - the ol' Spongebob Squarepants & Teletubbies are gay OMG OMG kinda nonsense.  And also those who are aggressively pushing for resource extraction, the future and the earth under our feet (& the waters) be damned.  Some of that old Sagebrush Rebellion stuff never really went away.

        "If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem." Eldridge Cleaver, Black Panther Party (quoted by Paul Ryan without proper attribution)

        by Land of Enchantment on Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 07:41:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  er no, if Cook's right then (2+ / 0-)
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      ukit, IM

      CO is actually more likely to be a tipping point state.

      Given his numbers the 11 states he cites as competitive can be ranked in order of likelihood of Obama victory:

      1. PA (high single digits)
      2. MI (6+)
      3. OH (5-8)
      4. CO (4-6)
      5. IA (3-6)
      6= FL, NV (2-5)
      8= VA, WI (2-4)
      10. NH ("about even")
      11.  NC ("Romney is best situated").

      With Obama at 201 EVs before these get counted, he gets to 237 with PA and MI; 255 with OH; 264 with CO; 270 with IA. Just needs IA and CO to switch places and CO is the tipping-point state.

      I was previously assuming that NV, NH and WI would all come in above OH, so this analysis is a bit disappointing in terms of those 3, particularly regarding NH (I seriously doubt that it's really "about even"). On the other hand it is very encouraging to see Obama so strong in OH and IA and CO are both rated a bit better than I would have guessed from recent public polling, so overall I can't really complain.

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