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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Did Mitt Romney really fumble away the election yesterday? (254 comments)

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  •  AP/GfK: Obama 47-46 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, badlands, IM, Supavash, MBishop1

    Same as a month ago.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 02:51:24 AM PDT

    •  Not the same at all: 50-40 among RVs (8+ / 0-)

      compared with 47-46 a month ago, so actually a very large shift under the hood. The difference is that they have now added a likely voter screen and find a massive drop in Obama's support in the move from RVs to LVs.

      More details are at the link here.

      Don't know how they are working out likely voters but a 9 point drop is very hard to believe. Among all adults the gap is an even more startling 52-37. If Obama can actually get people to turn out then this isn't remotely close.

      •  You're right (0+ / 0-)

        my mistake.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 03:22:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  dramatic shift in partisan balance (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        badlands, Supavash, abgin, askew, MBishop1

        from RV to LV screen (table on p34). It goes from +7D on the RV to just +1D on the LV. With about 95% having made up their minds it really looks like this is primarily a turnout battle now. Obama clearly has the votes to win fairly handily if he can motivate his supporters to turn out.

      •  strong movement also (0+ / 0-)

        on approval and right-track/wrong-track.

        Even on the unfriendly LV screen Obama's approval is 52-47 now compared with 49-49 last time on RVs. Comparing like-for-like he's up a massive 12 points, 54-42 among RVs.

        Right track-wrong track is also only -8 now among RVs, compared with -25 a month ago, so here too some huge movement in Obama's favor.

        The annoying thing is that this poll is probably going to be spun as "same as last time" because of the headline figure, but it's actually a very big improvement for Obama on a range of measures.

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