Skip to main content

View Diary: Mitt Romney's Intrade Contract Share Price Plunges, President Obama's Surges (53 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Couldn't have happened to a more deserving (23+ / 0-)

    asshole. I can't wait for the 538 update on this. It'll take a week or so for the polls to accumulate but it's going to be brutal. Can I laugh maniacally now or do I have to wait?

    If we got Mitt to be slightly less dishonest and gave him some personality he could pass as a used car salesman.

    by ontheleftcoast on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 11:23:25 AM PDT

    •  Agreed. This is one of reasons to include betting (9+ / 0-)

      markets such as Intrade in our portofolio of indices, as when large numbers of people have their own money on the line, they tend to react quickly, and in large volume markets with fewer "house biases" of the sort that can distort poll averarages.

      Romney is going to talk to Fox News in about an hour.

      The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

      by HoundDog on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 11:36:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I watch InTrade daily (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elwior, Siri, HoundDog, Orlaine, madhaus, Lujane

        It's not as fine-tuned as the fancier polls, but I find it interesting to observe the mindset of people willing, as you say, to have "their own money on the line."

        Obama hasn't been lower than 55 there in weeks and weeks.

        "We don't think the government can solve all of our problems, but we don't think the government is the source of our problems." -- Barack Obama

        by Mnemosyne on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 11:40:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I too watch Intrade daily, and would even bet on (6+ / 0-)

          it, if online betting were not illegal in the U.S.

          Another distinctive aspect of Intrade is the comment streams where you have an unusual mix of pro-Obama, and pro-Romney advocates, as well as a mix of non-partisans who are professional, and hobby betters, who get into lively discussions of a different sort that we see here, or at RedState, or even on LTE, and comment boards.

          Unlike comment boards where partisans can continue to advocate absurd position, in a Rovian style, at Intrade someone will say then put your money where you mouth is, I'll offer you this contract, which tends to quiet them down pretty quickly.

          On political blogs and comment boards there is less "reality consequence" feedback to influence discussions.

          The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

          by HoundDog on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 11:54:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  the Delphi Boards from "Stand on Zanzibar"... (5+ / 0-)

          ... a science fiction novel by John Brunner.  

          That's what Intrade is.

          Brunner predicted it about four decades ago.  

          "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

          by G2geek on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 12:26:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Curious (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            madhaus

            This would be the fifth mention in the comments of Stand on Zanzibar since August first.  What an enduring little book!

            The White Race can not survive without dairy products - Herbert Hoover (-8.75,-8.36)

            by alain2112 on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 02:04:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But the first one I've seen (0+ / 0-)

              Longtime Brunner fan here.  The Sheep Look Up is also quite prescient; Zanzibar deals with population pressures while Sheep deals with damages from industrial pollution.

              In capitalist America, bank robs you!

              by madhaus on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 06:18:12 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  haha, maybe he's going to give his resignation (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog

        speech and wanted a friendly venue?

        If we got Mitt to be slightly less dishonest and gave him some personality he could pass as a used car salesman.

        by ontheleftcoast on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 11:41:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think it may have been Bill Kristol today who (3+ / 0-)

          made a tangent comment, "unless Romney resigns and we could get a Ryan-Rubio" ticket.  But, it seemed more like wishful thinking, than a prediction or demand.

          The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

          by HoundDog on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 11:56:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  if they change horses in the middle of the... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog, Lujane

            ... campaign, that will be Total Disaster for them, AND for the downticket Rs.  

            Thinking of McGovern's original VP candidate in 1972.  I was just old enough to know that something was up with that, when he changed VP candidates and that dealt his campaign a blow.  

            Today, a change of Presidential candidate would be utterly fatal.

            "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

            by G2geek on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 12:29:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, I agree G2geek. But, the real question is (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              G2geek, Lujane

              would be be more "utterly fatal" than sticking with him?"

              I don't predict it as there is not enough time, but just for fun, we should note that there have been some hard-core right wing voters, who resigned themselves to the conclusion that Romney has lost the 2012 as of weeks ago, but now the election is about positioning Paul Ryan and the conservative base for 2014, and 2016.

              About a month ago, one social conservative opined that conservative might be better off with Romney losing in 2012 to make room for a real conservative in 2016.

              A Romney victory could risk the total repudiation of conservatism,  in his view.

              The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

              by HoundDog on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 12:40:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  double-bind! yeee-hawww! (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                HoundDog

                "Double-bind" = "damned if you do, damned if you don't."

                If they stick with "Unfit Mitt and his sidekick Twit," they lose the fanatical far-right "base."

                If they switch horses in the middle of a screw, they appear to be flailing and they lose a lot of middle-roaders and undecideds.

                They can't exactly go hard-right at this point in the game because it would also a) look like pandering and lose some undecideds, and b) when it loses bigtime in November it totally trashes the rightwing brand.

                But if they don't take that risk, and instead are looking toward 2016, they'll be attempting to fight a 2016 battle with 2012 tactics, and by that point the R brand will have suffered irretrievably.  

                I think we're seeing the end of the road for these guys.  The plutocrats need a totally new strategy, and the rabid right "base" has nothing left except overt terrorism that will further discredit and marginalize the right as a whole.  

                OTOH it ain't over 'til it's over, and we still have to fight every inch of the way to the election.

                "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

                by G2geek on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 01:08:33 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Bill Kristol made a joke late last night, or early (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  G2geek

                  this morning of a Ryan-Rubio ticket is Romney would step down.

                  What is it with Republicans and these candidates whose names start with R.

                  The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

                  by HoundDog on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 01:19:13 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  in 2016 they'll start with S, and... (0+ / 0-)

                    ... in the 2018 midterm, with T, and so on.

                    Think "mannequins."  

                    Whoever is responsible for their mannequin inventory is being lazy and just taking them off the rack in alphabetical order.

                    "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

                    by G2geek on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 01:35:06 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

          •  Obama's bounce disappeared from Gallup today. (0+ / 0-)

            His lead in the Gallup poll has dropped from 7 pts to 1 pt in a week. It's a little premature to call for a new candidate when the one you've got is tied nationally. Maybe this thing yesterday will cause an exodus of voter support from Romney, but I doubt it. Nothing else has.

            Two hundred million Americans, and there ain't two good catchers among 'em. --Casey Stengel

            by LongTom on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 04:34:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  There's also the paradox of crowd sourced intel (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        madhaus

        If you ask people who they WANT to win they will give you one answer, if you then ask who they EXPECT to win, they will often give a different one, and a more accurate prediction.

        Another factor is that crowd sourced intel works better where the crowd is not made up of "experts" whose professional positions seriously distort the results away from reality.

        Intrade is a meeting point for both factors.

        Until inauguration day The USA is in the greatest danger it has ever experienced.

        by Deep Dark on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 04:20:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site