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View Diary: About that New AP Poll (116 comments)

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  •  LV screen effects are wildly different (1+ / 0-)
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    MBishop1

    There have been three recent national polls: NYT/CBS, NBC/WSJ, and this AP poll.  

    NYT/CBS: 51-43 RV for Obama, 47-44 LV Obama = -5
    NBC/WSJ: 51-45 RV for Obama, 50-45 LV Obama = -1
    AP          : 50-40 RV for Obama, 1 point LV Obama = -9

    The negative numbers are the drop in Obama's lead in going from RV to LV.

    The above tells me that the different methods for doing the LV screen are more divergent than the possible lead Obama has.  Until the pollsters get together and decide on a uniform set of questions for computing the LV, then it makes sense only to compare RV numbers among different polls.

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