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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Disparate data rules the day on 'Not so fast' Thursday (171 comments)

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  •  Is it just me? (14+ / 0-)

    Or are other people excited to see how some CA Congressional elections turn out?  We have the opportunity to get a handfull of pickups in a SINGLE state.  It's awesome!!

    That CA-10 poll only makes me more confident CA dems will win big here this year.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

    by Daman09 on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 06:48:39 PM PDT

    •  go Californians! Good luck out there. (2+ / 0-)

      My Grandpa was from out there. If anyone can get a handful of pickups in a single state it is you guys! Go for it.

    •  I do love California's redisricting (4+ / 0-)

      Just draw the lines, regardless of party or incumbents, and let the chips fall where they may.

      I wish everybody did that. Safe districts elect zealots like Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry who would not normally stand a chance in hell of winning.

      NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

      by bear83 on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 09:00:30 PM PDT

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      •  Yep (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Non partisan, geographically coherent districts combined with top two open primaries seems like the best way to do things to me

        There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

        by slothlax on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 11:36:36 PM PDT

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        •  I don't know how I feel about top two yet (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          My worst fears about it were realized in CA-31.  A split field created a scenario where two republicans advanced to the general in a dem leaning district.  People aren't even given the opportunity to write in a candidate.

          If they want to do Top two, they need to also have some sort of rank choice voting in there as well, because I would assume that the electorate in this district would not have to hedge their bets during a primary due to the possibility of ending up with two republicans.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

          by Daman09 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:08:38 AM PDT

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        •  top two is very bad (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

              I think that the redistricting commission did a better job than I expected but the top two primary is a disaster.  I live in a CD with two Democrats in the runoff. While it is nice that the seat is 100% safe for our party we now have a wasteful general election where resources that would be used to defeat GOPers will instead be used against other Dems. In a real primary Sherman would have won in June and the GOPers and Greens would have their own protest candidates to vote for rather than the McCain endorsed Howard Berman. Berman had a great career in politics but is now going out as an asshole (he should have retired).

               Meanwhile in our US Senate race I have nobody to vote for. I can either leave that line blank or reluctantly vote for DiFi. When she really needed my vote to defeat a Republican I gave it to her but she is 110% safe this year. Not voting goes against my grain but DiFi is another asshole who should have retired long ago. A protest vote speaks louder than a protest abstention. Top two gives everyone fewer choices. Let the party members vote in their primaries and let everyone vote for any party nominee in the general election. Top two is a loser for California.

          Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

          by Zack from the SFV on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:59:58 AM PDT

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    •  My hope is... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, slothlax

      ...that the presidential election for Obama gets called way early, depressing late afternoon GOP vote turnout in the west giving us those pickups.


      by LordMike on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 09:02:39 PM PDT

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      •  Trick is, (7+ / 0-)

        it's probably us who need higher turnout to ensure victory. Voters with a softer likelihood to vote (read: usually Dems) could be the ones who stay home. Perhaps there's a piece of the puzzle that makes it more likely for an optimistic voter to head to the polls than a pessimistic one, but I think it could be a net loss for us.

      •  I thought they no longer did that? (5+ / 0-)

        After the 2000 fiasco the media has been a lot more tentative about calling the results.  We're only 3 hours behind here in CA, which means when polls close at 8 EST, it's already 5 PM.  8 CST is 6 PM, plus the counting has to take place.

        By the time it's obvious which way the election is going it will be around 7 PM here and the polls will be almost closed anyway.  I'm doubtful it makes a big difference.  

        •  The election that caused big problems... (4+ / 0-)

          ...suposedly...was in 1980, when President Carter conceded to Reagan, when the west coast polls were still open.

          I mean, the networks can TRY and say they're not going to project a winner until the polls close on the west coast, but if President Obama wins in EITHER Virginia, North Carolina, OR Florida....You don't have to be the Great Kreskin to see where the election's going to go.....  

          •  1980 was real (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, Bill Abendroth

               We lost a fine congressmember, Rep. Jim Corman, by a couple of hundred votes here in the SFV. Carter conceded the presidential race before the CA polls closed.

                 That was a long time ago; the idea of a Republican winning a Van Nuys based seat in this century is laughable.  The winner of that race, LAUSD Boardmember Bobbi Fiedler, did not last long in the House. She would have been out after one term but was able to move into an adjacent district to run after a GOP incumbent retired to run for Senate. That guy was Rep. Barry Goldwater Jr. and he did not join his father in the Senate. Four years later Fiedler also ran for the Senate without success, giving up her House seat.

            Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

            by Zack from the SFV on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:13:55 AM PDT

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      •  what portion of the CA vote is early vote? (1+ / 0-)
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        GOTV.  GOTV.  bank those early votes and mail in votes early and it reduces the risk of CA and WA voters deciding not to vote on election day because of TV network "calls" of winners in earlier voting eastern and midwestern states.

    •  I'm very excited (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, DCDemocrat

      I think we have two amazing Latino candidates in Jose Hernandez and Raul Ruiz.  They are total underdogs but if anyone can win in those districts, it's them.  Especially with an Obama landslide, which we're on track to get.  If 20% of Republicans vote for Obama and Obama captures 60%-70% of Independents and over 90% of Democrats, it will be a landslide larger than 08' and it will bring us in a huge number of seats.  

      Check out my new blog:

      by SoCalLiberal on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 10:01:10 PM PDT

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      •  We have great non-Latino challengers too (0+ / 0-)

          including an Indian-American named Ami Bera who might defeat the odious Dan Lungren near Sacramento (CA-07) and a Japanese-American gay man, Mark Takano, who is running in a new Riverside seat (CA-41). He lost a cliffhanger twenty years ago against the corrupt backbencher Ken Calvert (who is now running in a safer GOP seat nearby).

             The key race closest to me is in Ventura County (CA-26) where our candidate is Assemblymember Julia Brownley in the newly reconfigured seat which is open after the retirement of longtime GOP Rep. Elton Gallegly.

             So what about that other Hernandez guy? That is John Hernandez in CA-21. Is he totally hopeless?

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:29:35 AM PDT

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