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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Disparate data rules the day on 'Not so fast' Thursday (171 comments)

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  •  Republicans at 74% to lose the House? (15+ / 0-)
    Conditions through August showed a 2% lead on the generic Congressional ballot for Democrats. As of September 20th, in the wake of the Democratic convention, the lead has widened to 4.0 +/- 2.0%. Although it has yet to be appreciated by pundits, this could well translate to a November loss of the House of Representatives by Republicans. Based on the generic Congressional ballot, the probability of a Democratic takeover is 74% with a median 16-seat majority. Whichever party is in control, the seat margin is headed for being narrower than the current Congress. Like any probability in the 20-80% range, this is a knife-edge situation. This picture may change over the coming six weeks as more information, especially district-level polls, becomes available.
    http://election.princeton.edu/...

    Sam Wang is a really smart guy with this stuff. I've bolded the proviso, but we should keep a close eye on the congressional generic ballot.

    •  PLEASE let this be true!! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      keetz4, JClarkPDX, CocoaLove
    •  I'm still (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, scamperdo

      Skeptical about the Dems chances to win the House. I'd be happy to be wrong and it wouldn't be the first time I was. But this doesn't seem like a wave election. This seems like them having crappy candidates at the top of the ticket and in several senate races and us looking like we'll reap the benefits of that.

      •  It doesn't need to be a wave election... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JClarkPDX

        And to be honest, the 2006 and 2008 elections were overrated, at least in terms of the House.  Dem performance in the Senate in 2006 and 2008 might qualify them as a wave, but the gains in the House were kind of piddly for it to be considered a true wave.  

        Now, 2010 was a true wave, with Republicans picking up 63 seats.  A gain of 30 seats is a solid gain, but not a true wave.  

        In the after math of a wave election, the previously defeated party has some wind at their back.  All things beign equal, the Dems would probably pick up 5-10 seats just based on the receding of the 2010 Republican wave.  All we need to do is tilt the playing field in our favor by another 15 seats.  It's not as hard as it seems.  

        From 1994 to 2006 the Republicans never held this many seats, so this is also not anywhere close to the "natural' balance of the House.  

    •  Wow. Hopefully, this confirms... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea

      What we're seeing on the ground here!

    •  Wow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      The bettors at Intrade definitely don't agree with that. The Democrats are only 20% to take the House, which seems really low.

      On the other hand, the Republicans are only 20% to take the Senate and Obama is 69.1% to win.

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