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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Disparate data rules the day on 'Not so fast' Thursday (171 comments)

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  •  Some comments and minor disagreements (9+ / 0-)

    Colorado IS close, but Obama probably has a 3-5 point lead there. It's a state we still have to defend wholeheartedly because the party registration numbers there still aren't great.

    I'd give Obama about a 3 point lead in Florida, but that's a state where we have to run up our margins in Miami, Orlando, Tampa/St. Pete, and Gainesville, while holding Duval County (JAX) around even. Ground game is SO important there.

    NH I agree, that's going to leave the battleground soon. Same thing with Iowa; Chuck Todd made a note on NBC Nightly News that both campaigns believe Iowa will be conceded to the President soon. Same thing with Nevada; Heller's commentary regarding Romney's comments is a tell that Romney is getting crushed there (and not by three points, but more like 10).

    I'm bullish about Ohio too but we must stay as vigilant as ever there because you never know what Husted might pull in that state. Again, ground game is SO critical there.

    Virginia is breaking for the President because the economy is actually healthy there (unemployment is about 5.5%).

    As for Wisconsin, Obama has at worst a 5 point lead and at best a 10 point lead. He's making a visit to Milwaukee not only to hold a rally, but organize the ground game (because OFA wasn't required extensively in WI the last time).

    Two other things...Elon came out with a poll showing Obama up 46-43; their last poll had Romney up 4. Any GOP hopes for a "stealth withdrawal" there are vanishing.

    Lastly, I believe when Akin's name is locked in on the Missouri ballot Obama will expand the map and buy some TV time in STL and KC. I want that state to rub it in Rush Limbaugh's face

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