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View Diary: First academic prediction of Democrats re-taking the House: 74% probability. (15 comments)

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  •  I don't think it's all THAT good a case (2+ / 0-)
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    erush1345, Sanuk

    He seems, in effect, to assume that the Democratic margin in the generic House ballot is a direct estimate of their ultimate vote share. That is a questionable assumption, especially in a presidential election year. To say that it was pretty close in 2010 doesn't really seal the deal.

    I think it's way too early to say that the Democratic Party has a 74% chance of retaking the House. It's fine to be cheerful -- just maybe not that cheerful. :)

    Election protection: there's an app for that!
    Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

    by HudsonValleyMark on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 11:16:02 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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