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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/21 (574 comments)

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  •  What do you think Obama's base in Missouri is? (1+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY

    The ten biggest counties in the state, in order, are St. Louis, Jackson, St. Louis City, St. Charles, Greene, Jefferson, Clay, Boone, Jasper, and Franklin. Obama received 1,008,637 votes from these counties, while in the state overall he received 1,441,911. This is a difference of 433,274.

    In 2004, in the ten biggest counties, Kerry received 868,511 votes, compared to 1,259,171 votes overall. This is a difference of 390,660.

    It might be a little crude, but take Kerry's base in the rest of the state and add Obama's total in the biggest counties. The total is 1,399,287. The extra 42,614 are still in the 2008 voter pool, which was 2,929,111, but they go to McCain, making his total 1,488,428, or 50.81 percent. Obama's total becomes 47.77 percent.

    In other words, if you think Obama can match his 2008 totals in the ten biggest counties and do no worse than Kerry in the rest of the state, his base could be 47.77. Or, rather, the difference between Kerry's total of 46.10 percent and Obama's 49.23 is 3.13 points, and 1.67 percent of his improvement came from the biggest counties. Of course, you could also say that about half came from the rest of the state, which might see a HUGE drop off from 2008.

    Whether you think of the glass being half full or half empty, unless you think Obama's going to get destroyed in the biggest counties, I'm not sure why we should expect to see his total be all that different from Kerry's. It might be lower, but I don't think it's going to drop that much.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:33:08 PM PDT

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