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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Republicans cling to national polls, must ignore awful state polls (99 comments)

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  •  WTF (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    How come Romney is above 40% anywhere?  He has shown himself to be so out of touch, so un presidential, so contemptuous of 47% of the electorate -- I just don't get it.  

    •  Racism (6+ / 0-)

      Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

      by Micheline on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 08:31:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  GOP nominee would get around 40% (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nimh, PorridgeGun

      no matter who it was (pretty much) barring a serious third party factor.  Even in a blowout scenario.

    •  Polarization (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb92, outspoken82, PorridgeGun

      Mitt was right about one thing, and it's that we're so polarized that large pluralities of voters would vote for ham sandwiches so long as they had an R or D by their name.

    •  We tend to make light of this fact. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nimh, PorridgeGun

      45% believe Mitt is the way to go. Unfortunately, its the ugly truth about this country. We have to stop pretending it doesn't exist or it will somehow go away. Instead, we have to keep outsmarting them.

    •  Because the USA is pretty much a 45-45 state (0+ / 0-)

      Nearly 45 percent of the population will always vote Republican, even if, lets say, Hitler was their candidate running against FDR. The same pretty much counts for the Demiocrats where nearly 45 percent would support Stalin even if he ran against Ronald Reagan. The only alternative for many of those people when their party has an unpliable candidate, is to either hold their nose and vote for their unlikable candiate or stay at home, but normally they won't cross the aisle and vote for the other party.  

      Making abstraction of the GOTV effect, where elections are won or lost by the party which succeeds or fails to gets its backers to the ballot box (the enthusiasm gap), it's the 10-15 percent true independents in the center which often swing elections. And in this elections the center has shrunk enormously vis-à-vis previous elections.

      The fact that party registrations gives independents a larger share of the voting public belies the fact that many of those registered as independent, seldom really are.

      Obama-Biden in 2012!

      by Frederik on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 02:42:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  40-40 maybe (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        but 45-45 is too much. If the economy were booming right now and Romney were still the candidate then this would probably be the biggest Dem landslide since 64.

        Republicans also face a longer-term structural challenge of how to respond to America's changing demographics. If they continue to alienate Hispanics in particular then they can pretty much say goodbye to winning presidential elections except in extraordinary conditions.

        At some point in the next decade therefore I think they'll be forced to confront this structural problem and come back to the middle-ground on a range of issues. And when that happens, the current blocs are likely to dissolve again.

        •  If the economy was bad (0+ / 0-)

          and Barack Obama was Barry O'Brien he'd be headed towards a Reagan/Mondale type landslide right now.

          Never underestimate the power or prejudice over common sense and logic.

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 06:22:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I highly doubt that. (0+ / 0-)

            The economy sucks now, but other things sucked as bad in 2004, when our white guy lost to W. Yes, more people identified as R then, but the wars were not popular, and the economy wasn't exactly booming then either. It's not all about racism. It's about "Dism" for a whole lot of folks--they would rather slit their own throats (and that of their parents, children, friends, and country), than vote for a Dem or even abstain.

            "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

            by bryduck on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 08:34:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  The 38% floor (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Regardless of the landslide election, Whether Johnson or Reagan, there has been a consistent floor of around 40% of true believers for each party - they won't vote the other way no matter what.  I, too, am amazed that Romney has 40% or more naywhere - and most of those people, or at least a significant percent, are 47%ers who earn his contempt.  It's too easy to say its racism. It's insitututional Republicanism where you hold you nose and vote our party, no matter what.  And you know what? That includes me (and I suspect most of you).  I have a hard time imagining a presidential race where I won't pull for the Democrat, period, full stop.

      "It's a Christmas Miracle!" (SNL, 9/15/2012)

      by pswiderski on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 06:41:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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