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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: In email, Bono Mack laughs at Coachella as 'third world toilet' (104 comments)

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  •  Johnson is toast (6+ / 0-)

    He'll never survive presidential-year turnout.  In fact, the 2010 wave swept in a LOT of low-hanging fruit--Johnson in WI, Toomey in PA, Kirk in IL, Ayotte in NH, maybe even Paul in KY--that I will take delight in seeing squashed in 2016.

    •  I hope you are right. (5+ / 0-)

      The problem is that incumbents can get stronger with time. The same applies to Toomey and Kirk as much as it does to Johnson.

      I'd also caution against putting Ayotte into the low-hanging fruit category, if only because she's in New Hampshire, which goes back and forth so easily.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 07:10:56 AM PDT

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      •  I think Ayotte (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PALiberal1

        is there to stay, unfortunately. Unless she has some meltdown of epic proportions sometime before 2016. She just doesn't sound like a crazy Teahadist even though she's a reliable vote for them. Anyone know what the Dem bench is like in NH?

      •  Perhaps Ayotte isn't "low-hanging fruit" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, redrelic17

        per se, but given her stridently conservative views and New Hampshire's token switchiness (the same quality that swept her into office could easily sweep her out), I certainly don't consider her unbeatable.  Who would have considered Lil' John Sununu vulnerable back in the day?  I'd love to see John Lynch run for Ayotte's seat.

        While incumbents do tend to strengthen with time, those elected in wave years tend to have a rougher time at re-election than those who aren't.  Plus, first re-elections can be notoriously switchy--some politicians enjoy a "sophomore surge" while others are deemed unworthy to return to office.

    •  I wouldn't put Ayotte or Paul in that catagory (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      esp Paul. Now I do agree Johnson, Kirk, and Toomey are very vulnarable. I would also put Burr in that category, he got saved in 2010 because it was a wave favoring Republicans.

      Kirk will not run for reelection, nor will he retire now. He going to hold that seat till its up for election so he won't piss off senate GOP'ers.

      Ayotte, unless Lynch runs cause he has a very good chance to topple her.

      Paul, I can't stand him just like his father. Put he's likely will get reelected.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 07:20:12 AM PDT

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      •  Paul in theory should be easy to beat. (5+ / 0-)

        It's Kentucky, yes, but the Democrats have a strong bench there and he's more interested in personifying The Wall Street Journal editorial page from the Senate than, you know, acting like a senator.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 07:44:25 AM PDT

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    •  Will Kirk still be there in 2016? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      Not trying to be a jerk. But it sounds like his recovery has been pretty slow.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 07:24:19 AM PDT

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    •  Not Ayotte (0+ / 0-)

      Ayotte would start with an edge, unless the environment is a disaster for the GOP in 2016. Same for Paul probably, unless a high profile Dem runs. Kirk will be an easy pick up. Toomey and Johnson will be lean Dem, they're both way too far right for their states.

      I wonder what Lisa Murkowski will do. I doubt she'd retire after fighting so hard for her seat in 2010. Will she become a de facto Dem? She already votes to the left of Ben Nelson and Joe Manchin.

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