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View Diary: DKos Polling Aggregate: Is This Why Republicans Hate Education? (44 comments)

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  •  not really the case (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, Larsstephens, MichaelNY

    If you're just looking at your data for Obama, maybe.  But if you're looking more broadly at Democrats versus Republicans, Republicans tend to do better among people with some college or a 2 or 4 year degree, while Democrats do better among people at the ends of the spectrum, with either no college or those who have gone to graduate school.  This showed up in SUSA's last poll of Oregon, where Obama led by 10 points among people with high school education, Romney led by 1 among people with "some college", and Obama by 18 among people with at least a 4 year degree.  If you look at CNN's 2004 exit polling, Kerry won people without even a high school diploma, and did best among those with postgrad studies, while Bush won high school grads, some college, and college grads, but Kerry generally did worse the more education voters had, until you got to postgrad studies.

    And if you look at income, with one slight exception, Kerry did worse the higher voters' income was.

    And income is a very strong predictor.  If you consider the poorest states, aside from New Mexico, the others are generally Republican states today.  But the poorer people in those states, Hispanics and Native Americans in New Mexico, African Americans in Mississippi, etc., they tend to be Democrats.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:38:44 AM PDT

    •  I wonder if there's a correlation (4+ / 0-)

      between regional incomes, ie, 50 is a high wage for rural PA versus NYC.

      "A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer

      by CFAmick on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:04:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Democrats do indeed do better among HS voters (4+ / 0-)

      ...Among the entire voting population. In Dkos summer polling, Obama does better among those with high school or less education than those with some college or college. (The numbers for these lower education levels probably understate Obama's support because of polling error.)

      But that's because voters with less education are more likely to be non-white. If we want to try to identify a relationship with education itself, we need to filter out the variable of race. This is what the first graph above shows  - the relationship between education and voting preference just among whites - those with less education are less likely to support Obama. (This may or may not be true for voters of other races; we don't have the data available.)

      In the SUSA Oregon poll in particular, N<100 for the high school category, so the error is +/-11 points. This is high enough that all we can say when comparing to Obama's support among educational categories is that it is not statistically different from support of those with some college or college. Indeed, if you look at the 2008 Oregon exit poll, which has N=1249, you can see a nominal and significant increase in support for Obama from those with a HS education (52%) to postgraduates (68%).

      The same idea goes for income. Lower income voters are more likely to be racial minorities, as you point out in your comment. So yes, overall, lower income voters are more likely to vote for Democrats. But if we want to try to identify the relationship with income alone we need to filter out other variables. After you account for race and education, income only has a slight relationship to support for Obama.

      So yes, income can be a good predictor of voting behavior if all other variables are unknown.  But it is only a good predictor because it tends to be linked with race in our society. The correlation between income itself and voting behavior - and thus the possible effect of income - is not strong, but probably there to a small extent.

      Sorry I did not make myself more clear. Thanks for your comment.

      •  I don't think it was lack of clarity, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        historys mysteries, MichaelNY

        but in removing variables you're losing sight of the whole picture.  Income is a very important factor.  That it's tied to race and education doesn't make it less important.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:25:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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