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View Diary: Conservatives: Obama's lead is a mirage fueled by massive polling bias (243 comments)

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  •  Yes, you are probably right (1+ / 0-)
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    IM

    I looked here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

    and this paragraph stood out for me:

    Campaigns that are down by about this margin in the polls often say that there is some dynamic that the polls are not capturing. Sometimes they are making reasonable arguments, and sometimes they are just spinning. But either way, these factors are rarely enough to allow the candidate to overcome the deficit. The exceptional cases are often remembered precisely because they are rare events.
    So perhaps things are looking good for us.

    Religion is closer to a vice than a virtue; Religion is an excuse to discriminate and call it a first amendment right; The only Christian miracle is that it manages to raise so much money for its practitioners. - IAYP

    by IgnoreAtYourPeril on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:48:28 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  the Obama campaign is in a very good position (1+ / 0-)
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      walk2live

      In principle, there is still time for Romney to close the gap. In practice, it would take one heck of an "October surprise."

      It's not as if Romney will say, "Yup, I guess we're getting our behinds handed to us." I don't know where "positive illusion" ends and rational calculation begins, but torpedoing his own campaign and taking a bunch of down-ticket Republicans with him doesn't seem like a good play.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 11:02:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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