Skip to main content

View Diary: Conservatives: Obama's lead is a mirage fueled by massive polling bias (243 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Risible? (0+ / 0-)

    In fact, it's the conceptual flip side of exactly the same argument.

    WaPo/AC uses a 31D-24R-36 I split
    Rasmussen uses a 32D-33R-28I split.

    The argument advanced by our FP is that WaPo is closer to right.  These other guys reweight it using the Rasmussen results.  Both have some evidence behind them, although the consensus among pollsters is toward the WaPo end.

    now, these guys may be wrong about how they are reading the data, but unlike so many arguments, they do actually have some data and some arguments to back it up.  So, just because you disagree or they may even be wrong does not make it risible.  It just makes it wrong.

    Furthermore, if you have been around here long enough to remember 2010 and 2004, you'll remember that these same arguments that the underlying weights were unrealistic and wrong (with a dash of conspiracy) were quite popular here.

    As we all know, turnout is both critical and the hardest part to predict in polling.  Essentially their argument is that is true and that Romney may well pull this out.  I don't think he will, but we are kidding ourselves if we think we haven't advanced exactly the same arguments when the polls stack up against us.

    We cannot argue that Republicans are liars if we take Paul Ryan as our role model on how to relate to facts

    by Mindful Nature on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 12:21:11 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  the distinction is pretty straightforward (0+ / 0-)

      One site posts most of the results in one graph, and the tracker results in a second graph. No results are altered.

      The other site alters practically all the results.

      I don't regard one of these practices as the "conceptual flip side" of the other.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 12:25:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site