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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Republican fantasy world continues unabated (115 comments)

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  •  Not just 2008 - twenty-year trends (2+ / 0-)
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    vcmvo2, skohayes

    To get to Romney's preferred vote weighting, you have to actually reverse the long-term trends of African American, Latino, and youth participation in the electorate.

    Sargent isn't saying that overall turnout will be at 2008 levels, just that the diversity of the electorate is unlikely to diverge significantly from 2008 levels.

    ad astra per alia porci

    by harrije on Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 04:56:44 AM PDT

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    •  But wouldn't turn out itself have to be at 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      levels, in order for these samples to work?  I understand the trends, long term,  but do we think that turn out will be like that the current prediction?  It seems to me that the screens being used are on the premise that the youth, minority voters will turn out like they did then.  

    •  The 4-year trend alone in NC (1+ / 0-)
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      points to a more diverse electorate. Just look at how North Carolina's racial breakdown of regitered voters has changed in 4 years:

      76.7% White

      20.3% Black
      0.8% Hispanic
      0.8% Am. Ind.
      1.5% Other

      74.5% White

      22.0% Black
      1.1% Hispanic
      0.8% Am. Ind.
      1.6% Other

      71.9% White

      22.1% Black
      1.6% Hispanic
      0.8% Am. Ind.
      3.6% Other

      Non-white voters, who were 25.5% of NC's registered voters in 11/08 are now at 28.1%. Registrations of non-white voters have outpaced registrations of white voters by 3-1 since 2008.

      The Republican idea that we will see a repeat of the 2010 electorate this year is a fantasy. If anything, the NC vote should be a couple points more Democratic in 2012 than in 2008.

      NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

      by bear83 on Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 05:25:05 AM PDT

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