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View Diary: Gallup no longer worries or puzzles me (58 comments)

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  •  actually (1+ / 0-)
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    In the 18-24 age group it was 46.7% of total voting population in 2004, 48.5% in 2008 . I just don't see where if one uses say the 2004 model where it makes that big of a difference Then when one factors in other demographics it eases Obama having to come up with the same electorate of 2008.

      Furthermore all of Jerry's assertions about Rasmussen & Gallup neglect two issues one is the inherent problems of tracking polls &  that Rasmussen's own tracking polls are undercut by his state polling. There's no way Obama could be behind nationally while being ahead in Ohio,Florida and Virginia.

    •  Very Good Pt Re: Ohio, Florida, VA (2+ / 0-)
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      FiredUpInCA, NotGeorgeWill

      All R leaning states vs national #s (well Virginia may be even now) if Obama is winning in those states - there's almost no way he's not up nationally.

      And regardless.... if he wins even one of those three states he is going to win the EV.

    •  Theoretically it is possible . . . (1+ / 0-)
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      if Obama is winning his strong states in the high 50s and low 60s and Romney is running up margins in the mid to high 60 or 70s in solid GOP states -- especially a state like Texas, it would be possible for Obama to win swing states and still only win narrowly in the popular vote count (think a more extreme version of a reverse Bush v. Gore scenario).

      Not likely, but theoretically possible.

      With respect to the youth vote, if young voters who split two-to-one for Obama account for two percentage points less of the total electorate, that is equal to a difference of about a little over a half a percentage point.  In a close election that could be significant.  If you assume something closer to 2000, the difference would save over two points off of Obama's vote total.

      Once again, not likely, but that's a hypothetical where the scenario would be consequential.  

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