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View Diary: PPP IOWA: Obama leads with EVERYONE 51-44 (29 comments)

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  •  Huh? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Boris Godunov, sacrelicious
    ...an ancestrally Republican state like Iowa
    Iowa has gone Democratic in 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

    They even voted for Michael Dukakis.

    •  Iowa was reliably Republican for years (6+ / 0-)

      It went Democratic a grand total of four times from 1860 to 1984.

      That's why the senior crosstab is really bad news for Romney--most of them have voted Republican all their lives.  If he's losing them, it means Obama's making inroads in western Iowa, which is still pretty red.  Romney has to absolutely run it up in western Iowa in order to win.

      Romney-Ryan: America's Rollback Team

      by Christian Dem in NC on Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 03:33:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, but by that definition, Vermont is an (0+ / 0-)

        "ancestrally Republican" state, since it went Democratic once between 1820 and 1992. So much has been realigned in the past few decades that what was "ancestrally Republican" doesn't remotely factor into Mitt's chances in any given state.

        Granted, Romney is in some deep shit here. However, seniors bailing on him in places like Arizona would be much more serious.

        Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

        by Zutroy on Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 04:49:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's actually at least as serious (0+ / 0-)

          Western Iowa is the most conservative part of the state, and contains a good chunk of senior voters.  And any realistic path to flipping Iowa has to go through the west.

          Considering that nearly all polling up to now indicated that Iowa was perhaps the weakest Obama state (unless you count Indiana, which has long since flipped), I say again--if Romney can't win western Iowa, he's done here.  And that means more Obama money that can help close the deal in Ohio and bleed Romney white in North Carolina.

          Romney-Ryan: America's Rollback Team

          by Christian Dem in NC on Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 05:19:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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