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View Diary: First-time unemployment benefit claims take steep drop, as does GDP and durable goods orders (74 comments)

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  •  Merit to your arguments (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    xsonogall

    But my concern is that the low information voters will react negatively to the jobs reports if they are substantially low. We are all policy wonks at D-Kos and tend to work with certain assumptions based on what we know... but the herd reacts viscerally.

    I pray your are right in your assessment for Obama... but the down ticket picture is worrisome as the battle for congress is as important as the battle for the White House.

    GOP obstructionism has caused the recovery to stall, I agree with Krugman on this. Roubini on the other hand is downright pessimistic because he sees gridlock in congress continuing.

    The long term picture actually looks brighter for  the economy but most people aren't trends analyst and in politics... perception is everything.

    Here is an interesting trend note:

    Re-Made in America: 5M Jobs Are Coming Back, Report Says

    •  low information voters (0+ / 0-)

      pay attention to monthly job reports?

    •  Depends how hard Romney hits Obama (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      George Hier

      with these numbers in the debates.

      And as far as manufacturing goes.. 5 million sounds nice..  but by 2020?  Tell your average voter things will be better if they just wait 8 years....  that'll go over big.

      And this sounds very pie-in-the-sky considering the global slowdown happening at this point.

      •  and... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Flint

         just who in the hell is going to listen to "Mr 47% don't pay taxes" about those numbers?

      •  Some other stats... (0+ / 0-)

        1. Manufacturing jobs have begun being added to the economy for the first time since 1998, mostly in the auto and steel industry sectors. That is a simple fact.

        I expect to hear that factoid in the debates.

        2. The transportation bill that was delayed for over a year until late July of this year will if the CBO report is correct... produce 1.1 million new jobs.

        The bad news for the Obama Campaign is that funding for  that won't become available until after the election in 2013.

        I called the Committee Chairs for Ways and  Means as well as Transportation in the House and verified it.

        As to...

        And this sounds very pie-in-the-sky considering the global slowdown happening at this point.
        Many of the CEO's I've been talking to have been making many of the same points that were referenced in that report, especially about shipping costs and oddly enough the role of natural gas prices.

        However... it is just one trend report and I tend to look at them all and they all have one phrase in common... "Fiscal Cliff"

        Factchecker: Romney’s ’12 million jobs’ promise

        Excerpt:

        But, in fact, the number is less impressive than it sounds. This pledge amounts to an average of 250,000 jobs a month, a far cry from the 500,000 jobs a month that Romney claimed would be created in a “normal recovery.” In recent months, the economy has averaged about 150,000 jobs a month.

        The Congressional Budget Office is required to consider the effects of the so-called “fiscal cliff” if a year-end budget deal is not reached, which many experts believe would push the country into a recession. But even with that caveat, the nonpartisan agency assumes 9.6 million jobs will be created in the next four years. (This is a revision downward; CBO had estimated 11 million in January.)

        But Moody’s Analytics, in an August forecast, predicts 12 million jobs will be created by 2016, no matter who is president. (See page 51.) And Macroeconomic Advisors in April also predicted a gain of 12.3 million jobs.

        http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

        I tend to put great stock in Roubini's assessment but like any prognosticator his analysis, although right more than he is wrong, hasn't been perfect either:

        US Economy Going from Bad to Worse: Roubini

        Excerpt:

        Roubini believes the U.S. economy will slow further this year and next as expectations of the “fiscal cliff” keep spending and growth lower — and uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election dogs markets.

        The fiscal cliff could knock 4.5 percent off 2013 growth if all tax cuts and transfer payments were allowed to expire and spending cuts where triggered, according to Roubini.

        “Of course, the drag will be much smaller, as tax increases and spending cuts will be much milder. But, even if the fiscal cliff turns out to be a mild growth bump — a mere 0.5 percent of GDP — and annual growth at the end of the year is just 1.5 percent, as seems likely, the fiscal drag will suffice to slow the economy to stall speed: a growth rate of barely 1 percent,” he wrote.

        The U.S. consumer, which drives plenty of the global economy as well as the U.S., will not be able to keep spending when $1.4 billion worth of tax cuts and extended transfer payments come to an end according to Roubini.

        More...
        http://www.cnbc.com/...

        Which leads me back to my initial post on the fiscal cliff and its impact as to how it is resolved and impact of the the results of the election.

        From my perspective it is essential that Obama win from just an economic stand point... the economy needs stimulus and the Romnoid 2012 is only offering "austerity budgets" which have been tried in Greece and all over Europe and are turning the streets flaming battle zones.

        There is so much riding on the outcome of these elections... it appears we are really at the tip of the fulcrum... the turning point on so many fronts and not just economics.

        •  meh.. government stimulus has been shown to do (0+ / 0-)

          very little and affect the economy very short term.

          His Jobs act was more stimulus, but only about half as big as the 2009 stimulus.  We got very little bounce from the last one.  I hold out no hope a much smaller one will be much more than a blip.

          We need private sector jobs, not public sector ones.  And the private sector is holding back for a variety of reasons.

          Gallup: Health Costs, Gov't Regulations Curb Small Business Hiring

          Among other reasons:

          nearly half of small-business owners point to potential healthcare costs (48%) and government regulations (46%) as reasons
          66% in that study were worried about the "current state of the US economy".  It's a vicious circle.

          President Obama simply asks us to wait.. things will get better.. maybe they will, but maybe they won't.  If we go into a stall (and it looks more and more likely we will with many more quarters of GDP below 2%) , no one will want to hire.

          I'm not saying Romney will do better, but a recession is not the time to be instituting a bunch of regulatory burdens on businesses.  And when you want businesses to hire, it would do well to get rid of the fiscal cliff hanging over the heads of all Americans.

          I don't know what your crystal ball shows you that makes you think another 4 years of Obama's policies will help this economy.  Higher taxes on top earners and a big cut in defense spending (which contributes to the GDP ).

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