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View Diary: New Obama ad lets Mitt Romney destroy himself in his own words (190 comments)

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  •  Some thoughts (3+ / 0-)
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    sethtriggs, PinHole, Prairie Gal

    There are still 40 days until the election. If a week is a lifetime in politics, then 5 1/2 weeks allow for an infinite number of possibilities.

    We have seen how quickly a campaign change. Until his Libya fiasco, Romney was rolling along. I thought there was a good chance he could win. Then he stumbled, stumbled again, and fell on his face after the 47% video surfaced. He's behind Obama now and no amount of twisting and turning by Fox News can change that fact. He isn't as far behind as some polls show, but he is behind and that is enough to cost him the election.

    If the election were held today, I believe Obama would win by 2 to 3 percentage points. Most likely, we're looking at 51% Obama, 48% Romney, and other third party candidates dividing up the remaining 1%.

    The popular vote would be close, the electoral college would be a blowout in favor of Obama. Electoral votes are what matters, not so much the popular vote (ask should've-been-President Al Gore).

    I think if we consider what are the swing states or battleground states, Obama would win NV, NM, IA, WI, MI, PA, OH, VA, and FL. Romney would carry CO, NH, and NC. That would give Obama a 319 to 219 victory. Not as impressive as his 2008 victory, but impressive nonetheless.

    Campaigns can change quickly, though, so the fire should continue and one cannot allow the enthusiasm to wane. In 2004, I truly believed Kerry was going to win. I'm sure some thought Carter was a shoo-in during the 1980 election.

    Keep working.

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