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View Diary: The LGBT Civil Rights Backlash (with graphs) (40 comments)

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  •  Did you realize that hate crime incidents declined (1+ / 0-)
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    as a whole, and therefore percentage as a way of determining whether or not as a trend LGBT hate crimes have increased or decreased may produce a false trend?  

    If 2 LGBT hate crimes were committed out of 10 hate crimes, that would be a rate of 20%.

    If 2 LGBT hate crimes were committed out of 8 hate crimes, that would be rate of 25%.  

    The number of hate crimes could remain the same but if the denominator changes (as it appears it has), one could draw a false impression that the NUMBER of hate crimes has increased, even if it has not.

    Your seem to have great faith in your use of statistics that you have decided to use without defining a static basis for the y axis.  Do you understand this?  You are not comparing apples to apples.

    Your methodology is, given my quick review of FBI statistics, faulty.  

    This is why I ask for links to original data.  You are trying to prove a point based on very questionable methodology, that is not scientifically credible.  Sorry.

    "Out of Many, One." This is the great promise of our nation -9.75 -6.87

    by Uncle Moji on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 06:05:22 PM PDT

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    •  Yes, compositional data can be tricky (1+ / 0-)
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      Uncle Moji

      (you have compositional data when all your data have to add up to a certain number)

      For example, in the late 1990s there was a lot of hand-wringing about an apparent increase in the suicide rate among young adults, because suicide had jumped up a notch as a cause of death among young people. But in reality the suicide rate had gone down. What really happened was the widespread use of HAART (Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Therapy) which had caused a drastic drop in the number of young adults dying of AIDS. Since young people who die all die of something, if AIDS stops being a major cause of death, all the other causes of death will become more prevalent in relative terms even though there are fewer deaths in total.

      Last year aspiration pneumonitis "moved up to" the 15th leading cause of death in the US. More wasted rock stars choking on their own puke? Nope, fewer murders: homicide fell off the top 15, so something had to replace it.

      In a dog-eat-dog world, rabies is an advantage in the short term.

      by ebohlman on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 08:07:19 PM PDT

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    •  Hate crime incidents go up and down.... (0+ / 0-)

      ...from year to year, just as other crimes do (as I said in the diary).  It is not correct to say that hate crime incidents have trended downward over any significant period of time ("Did you realize that hate crime incidents declined as a whole...").  They tend to go up when the economy is robust and also when crime in general goes up.  But my diary is not about absolute numbers of anti-LGBT hate crimes as you erroneously insist.  You keep confusing the number of hate crimes committed (which I don't discuss in the diary) with the concentration with which hate crimes have GLBT folks as their targets. As for saying I am not comparing apples to apples, all I can say (with respect to the Massachusetts graph, for example) is that I am comparing sexual orientation-based hate crime incidents as a percent of all hate crime incidents before and after marriage equality was passed in Massachusetts (blue bar vs. yellow bar).  I'm comparing the same apple with itself at two different reference points--one prior to a seminal event (the passage of same-sex marriage into law) and one afterwards.  It's a totally fair comparison.

      Failure to Publicize Acts of Hatred Only Allows Them to Fester and Metastasize.

      by BoxerDave on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 05:21:15 AM PDT

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      •  You still miss the point (0+ / 0-)

        if the base number changes, the percentage changes even if the number of acts go down.  To draw the conclusion you still insist on making that there is a definite correlation with changes based on marriage equity that have to do with absolute numbers is ridiculous.  

        If the absolute number of hate crimes declined because the number of hate crimes declined because of race even if they remained the same for LGBT, then you could write a diary with the equally unsupported claim the because of marriage equity racism declined.  

        Your diary is text book for the old saying: Cum hoc, ergo propter hoc

        "Out of Many, One." This is the great promise of our nation -9.75 -6.87

        by Uncle Moji on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 02:23:39 PM PDT

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