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View Diary: PA Poll Bias? (64 comments)

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  •  the caution I would have (11+ / 0-)

    about the House... is that many of the districts have been horribly gerrymandered to make winning them very, very difficult for Democrats.

    There's smart, and there's K-mart smart. Sarah Palin is K-mart smart.

    by InsultComicDog on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:46:51 AM PDT

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    •  Not necessarily (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      InsultComicDog, Larsstephens

      My congresscritter Chris Gibson got gerrymandered into a bigger district that, theoretically, should be difficult for a GOPher like him to get a new term. Instead, he's up by 20 in the latest polls -- partly because nobody knows his opponent, but mostly because he's gone the Scott Brown "I'm really a nice-guy moderate" route after getting in as a tea-bagging combat veteran. DCCC has targeted him according to the Morning Digest, but I've yet to see any lessening of the lead.

      "If you're going to go down with the ship, make it a submarine." - Wayne Shorter

      by Oliver Tiger on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:59:20 AM PDT

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      •  I know what you mean (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        We had a similar thing happen in PA-13 after the last gerrymander, which turned out to be a dummymander.

        I think it could work out that way in PA-7 where I have been redistricted into, but I'm not sure the change will happen this year as opposed to 2-4 years out.

        There's smart, and there's K-mart smart. Sarah Palin is K-mart smart.

        by InsultComicDog on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 12:07:11 PM PDT

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    •  I'd also caution that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inameli, InsultComicDog, Larsstephens

      according to the diarist's data/conclusion the Rs are not converting to Ds, the are falling into Indy category.

      So, a D win is not a foregone conclusion.  Who knows, they may go Libertarian?

      Supporter: "Senator, you have the vote of every thinking person!" Adlai Stevenson: "That's not enough, madam, we need a majority!"

      by Scott Wooledge on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:25:49 AM PDT

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