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View Diary: The Path to a Democratic House Majority (Part 1) (90 comments)

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  •  this is excellent... (15+ / 0-)

    ...the way you've put this together helps give a much better context for approximately how many pickups the Democrats stand to gain in these seats...(about 15 pickup opportunities seem available just in the states you've covered about).

    Many other diaries leave me scratching my head as to which seats are Republican or Democratic PICKUPs (often not even indicating whether a Democrat or Republican holds the seat now).

    As you continue this series, this will give a much clearer path for those of us who simply do not have the time to devote to the research and analysis you've done.

    •  Thanks (9+ / 0-)

      This is sort of my football-baseball hobby, following these sorts of nuts and bolts whispering and making notes on all these races.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 06:34:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very nice analysis. Would you please fix (9+ / 0-)

        2 fairly significant errors?

        1. UC Berkeley (note extra "e") is most certainly NOT in Yolo County (CA-03), or anywhere near Yolo County.  It's in Alameda County, right across the Bay from San Francisco, and immediately north of Oakland.

        I think you managed to make two different mistakes in putting Cal so far north.  First, Berkeley used to be in CA-09.  The old CA-09.  The CA-09 you are writing about (after CA-03) moved east to Stockton.  Berkeley is now in CA-13 and has about as much chance of turning red as Provo, UT does of voting in Obama.

        Here's a terrific resource I just found for comparing old and new districts for any given location in California.  It showed me that the new CA-03 has moved a bit south, just abutting the furthest fringes of the Bay Area in Solano County, with Fairfield the only city of note.

        2. The name of the Republican running for CA-52? (don't know because you didn't mention the district number in the last 2 grafs) is Brian Bilbray, not Bilbary.

        One thing that would be really nice for an in-depth piece like this is congressional maps.  It gives the reader an idea where you are talking about, especially when discussing a state s/he is less familiar with.  It would also nicely break up the "wall of text" assault that these in-depth pieces have, and which scare people away who would otherwise enjoy a really close look at what's possible district by district.

        In capitalist America, bank robs you!

        by madhaus on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 12:42:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Plus, splitting up to more diaries (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Bob Guyer, wdrath, madhaus

          makes sense as well.

          That way the framing and maps (and photos, if possible) would make the text more memorable.

          (We have no idea who these people are. Really.)

        •  A great graphic is here (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          madhaus, susanWAstate

          Take a look at this graphic. It makes things clear in a map-like way.

          You get to the graphic thru a link in this fine diary:
          http://www.dailykos.com/...

          If the two diarists could collaborate, they would blow us away!

        •  The diarist was referring to UC Davis (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, lighttheway, ArkDem14

          Which is in Yolo County.

          This is a very well-researched and thorough diary.  I count 15 here, and then NH 01 and 02, a couple in NY, one in NJ, and between IL and OH another 5-6, plus some scattered in CO and elsewhere and before you know it we are at 30+.

          Looking forward to Pt 2.

          The scientific uncertainty doesn't mean that climate change isn't actually happening.

          by Mimikatz on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 03:15:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It has excellent research, yes (0+ / 0-)

            but it really needs a thorough editing.  Lots and lots and LOTS of mistakes make this writer/editor grind her teeth reading through them.  This is the sort of effort that could be really valuable, but the level of sloppiness is too high for me to have confidence in it.  I'm not just referring to two mistakes I called out above, those were just two sufficient to go back and change the diary.  There are typos, missing information, missing names, missing districts, and mixing up places.

            This is good work, mind you.  But it gets in its own way and that prevents it from being great work.

            In capitalist America, bank robs you!

            by madhaus on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 04:14:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Where were the missing names (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              missing districts, missing information? Could you point out a few of them instead of just being obnoxious and vague?

              As for grammatical errors, there are probably quite a few. I'm also a writer and English is one of my minors so they aren't lost on me. I just think that they are irrelevant to the validity of my observations, and not worth the time of thoroughly editing this piece.

              For the love of god, in the first draft I accidentally mixed of UC Davis with UC Berkeley (that's all, I was always talking about Yolo county and CA-03, not CA-09), and I mispelled Brian Bilbray's last name in another accident, both of which I later corrected. I did not mix up any districts, and I was clearly in that instance talking about Garamendi's current district, renumbered CA-03.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:10:13 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  It is though, I'll admit, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              intentionally a bit disorganized, and I chose to use the dashes instead of making a clear, heading with the bolded district number because I found that too boring. The dashes always follow the order of the previously listed districts though. The purpose was pretty focused, in order to save time and space, and that purpose was basically to summarize the political nature of the districts, talk about the candidates running, and mention any of the importance news. All wrapped together in my own impressions of the races. Nothing more, nothing less. This is basically part of an outline to a majority.

              I'll start on Part 2 this weekend.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:17:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  fairfield the only city of note? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          what, are davis, woodland, vacaville, yuba city and marysville chopped liver?

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