Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Republicans are all poll denialists (82 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  likely voter models?? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrismorgan

    Look at last month's AP's poll showing Obama +10 in RV's but only +1 in LV however their likely voter model shows only 63% of registered voters  showing up to vote whereas in 1996 82.3% of RV's showed up,in 2000 85.5%, in 2004 88.5% and in 2008 89.6%. If history is any example people who are registering do show up for the most part.

    •  I think this is partly due to (0+ / 0-)

      increased computerization of voter roles, better scrutiny of voter registration forms (knocking out those with bad addresses, etc.) and just overall cleaning up of voter rolls.

      If you take people off when they move, just that would increase the percentage who vote, because if they're not there but not removed, they are counted as not voting.

      So if you had a precinct with 200 voters on the rolls, but 50 of those registrations had moved and not been purged off the rolls, you could have EVERY eligible voter in that precinct vote and STILL only have 75% of 'registered' voters vote.

      If the rolls get cleaned up (and computerizing them makes that much easier, since you can cross reference with death records and drivers licenses) it stands to reason that your voting percentage could increase substantially, even if the raw number of voters hadn't budged.

      •  I think you're making a strong assumption... (0+ / 0-)

        ...that AP knows who is actually registered.

        In that poll, 79% of respondents reported being registered.  In the 2008 Current Population Survey, 71% of voting age citizens reported being registered -- and even that was probably high. (The turnout numbers that bridav cites appear to be from the CPS.) So that probably accounts for part of the gap cited by bridav, but not all of it.

        Election protection: there's an app for that!
        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

        by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 01:44:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yep... (0+ / 0-)

           That's where I got it from . I posted it because a lot of people say turnout is going to be so down but if one looks at the historical record if people register they vote.

        •  Ok I went back and (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HudsonValleyMark

          I looked back at the AP poll which showed 1512 adults being interviewed ,of which 1282 reported being registered in their current domicile . AP then narrowed the 1282 registered voter figure down to 807 interviewees which is 63%  of the totaled  RV field.

            I'm just saying history seems to show that a far higher % of registered voters show up at the polls then what this poll shows.

          •  sure; just to recap... (0+ / 0-)

            If you're trying to figure out whether AP's likely voter model is reasonable, per se -- or how unreasonable it is?! -- I think it may be better to look at likely voters as a percentage of adults, which is about 53%. According to Michael McDonald, turnout in 2008 was about 57% of the voting age population -- which I think is a better standard of comparison, for this purpose, than voting-eligible population. So, it's off, but not crazy off.

            The point of a likely voter model isn't to estimate turnout; it's just to reduce bias in the sample. I think we'd need a lot more information to evaluate the AP poll on that score.

            All that aside, official statistics indicate that in 2008, something like 73% of registered voters turned out -- depending on how one handles Election Day Registration states. The CPS figure is higher, partly due to overreporting, but also because surveys don't pick up on "deadwood" in the registration rolls. Regardless of the exact figure one uses and why, I agree that most registered voters do vote in presidential elections. (The ones who don't, generally don't remain registered very long -- although that can vary a lot.)

            Election protection: there's an app for that!
            Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

            by HudsonValleyMark on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 01:54:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site