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View Diary: StephenCLE's Election Ratings - October 1 (49 comments)

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  •  55 is about as possible as 49 on the 538 site (0+ / 0-)

    You could say law of averages is that, on average, things tend to even out, so that over many coin flips, an average coin will flip heads half the time.

    There is another law of averages that says that, in an average Democratic victory year, a majority of victories are Democratic, and in a Republican year, most go Republican.

    It's like the coin will average out one way or another, depending on how it is weighted.

    If this year's "coin" is slightly more Democratic, then the law of averages will average out slightly Democratic, but how much?  Nobody knows.  

    It's true that the coin will be weighted, but we won't know how heavily weighted until the days just before election.

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