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View Diary: StephenCLE's Election Ratings - October 1 (49 comments)

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  •  I think you're right about this (0+ / 0-)

    But it is scary to know that the repuglican side has created new GOP districts while destroying a number of Democratic districts.

    So the Dems don't start with an even playing field.  We will have to win at least half a dozen to just stay even.  

    What would you say about the pollster.com charts indicating that the "generic House ballot" is only about 2 pts in favor of the Dems now?

    My belief is that Dems might only pick up a very small number or even fall behind if our generic ballot advantage is only 2 pts, or like 1.5 pts.  If the generic goes up to +3, then we can pick up seats, and +4 15 seats, +5 20 seats, +6 25 seats, something like that....

    I say these because there was an election not long ago (2004?) when the Dems were up 1 or 2 in the generic polls, and we actually ended up losing a couple of seats.

    •  isn't that because of the Texas mid-decade (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      redistricting?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:50:32 PM PDT

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      •  Texas added 4 districts (0+ / 0-)

        Don't have the complete breakdown, by party, but by State.  Overall, the effects have been advantageous to the Republicans, who gained net districts.  This is likely to have been due in part to gerrymandering.

        Perhaps it all balances out to strip away only a handful of seats, but even one could make the difference.

        The weird thing is that the nation isn't more Republican now than 10 years ago, so the whole thing is messed up, rigged against the majority.

        Texas +4; Florida +2;

        Plus one in the following mostly red States:

        Arizona
        Georgia
        Nevada
        South Carolina
        Utah
        Washington

        Most of these are Republican pick-ups.

        They are taken away from the following, mostly blue States:

        -2  New York

        -2 Ohio

        -1 Illinois
        Iowa
        Louisiana
        Massachusetts
        Michigan
        Missouri
        New Jersey
        Pennsylvania

        •  you're not listening (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          wasn't the loss in 2004 because of the mid-decade redistricting that Delay orchestrated, and had pretty much nothing to do with anything else?

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 10:44:09 PM PDT

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          •  As I have read elsewhere, the answer is no. (0+ / 0-)

            But the source may have been incorrect - can you provide the actual detailed breakdown?   What I read was that the Dems have gained a few new districts, but lost more than they gained.

            By the way, I just checked huffington pollster again, and now they have the generic lead down to less than 1%.

            I have used their tools to re-run the averages without the robo-polls, and without internet polls, but it comes out almost the same.   None of the results shows a generic House advantage of more than 1.5% for the Dems, today.

            I hope that I am wrong, but so far, it looks like the Dems had a generic advantage of up to 5 points, but that it might have been a temporary blip.

            Seems weird, since Obama is almost guaranteed to win big, you would think the generic advantage would keep growing for the Dems.  But I am cautious with the data, which are disappointing me this week, as a loyal Dem.

            •  EV: Likely R – TN, TX, ND, SD, NE, AK – 63 EV (0+ / 0-)

              I was just going to point out that TX has 38 of those 63 EVs - -yes, due to Tom DeLay, and subsequent GOP Lege re-districting, or as I like to call it, re-gerrymandering.

              We need to change the Lege - -254 counties in Texas, and we need to fight in them all.  We almost had the state House - 73R-71D (2 vacancies) in 2010, then we had Dems who turned coat, the re-re-redistricting, and now they have the House at 101R-47D, 2 vacancies.

              Also: Senate Safe R – TN, MS, TX, WY, UT

              That "safe" seat for the Repubs inTexas is Ted Cruz, Teparty nutcase.

              He and his Dem opponent, Paul Sadler, will debate tonight on Tee-Vee and on-line at TX PBS stations.  We all get Ted for 6 years, unless something is done.

              Support Paul Sadler: http://www.sadlerforsenate.com/

              Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

              by tom 47 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:06:54 AM PDT

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            •  It sounds like you don't even know what (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Woody

              I'm talking about.  Republicans in Texas conducted redistricting for a second time in the decade after they had taken control of the state legislature in 2002, under pressure from Tom Delay, taking effect in the 2004 election.  Martin Frost, Max Sandlin, Charlie Stenholm, and Nick Lampson all lost their re-redistricted seats, and Republicans created a number of new Republican seats as well.  But considering that Republicans only gained 3 districts in the 2004 election nationwide, we can say that if they had not redistricted again in Texas, Democrats likely would have netted 1 seat overall just from the losses of those 4 Texas Democrats.

              See here.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:42:40 AM PDT

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              •  Yeah, he never understood you (0+ / 0-)

                As an old codger myself, I suspect StephenCLE may be too young to know what the bastards were up eight or 10 years ago! He's a smart guy and a quick learner, tho, so be patient with him.

          •  yes (0+ / 0-)

            but those seats were going to have been lost eventually.

            RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

            by demographicarmageddon on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:11:55 PM PDT

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