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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Patrick Murphy leads in two polls—and raises a million bucks (124 comments)

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  •  WAA MO Pres: Romney 48-45 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, spiderdem, bear83, askew

    So he's not totally in the clear.

    Senate is also close: McCaskill leads by a single point, 46-45.

    •  strange results (0+ / 0-)

      How is it that the same poll shows Akin keeping the race close but Romney just barely beating Obama when compared to previous MO polls?

    •  That's the closest MO has been in the Pres race (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, itskevin

      in a while. That makes a McCaskill win seem more likely than if it was a 10 point blowout for Romney.

      NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

      by bear83 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:49:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't believe that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      Mo has turned pretty hard right and in a year (2008) when even IN turned blue MO stayed red. Most polls seem to have the race at 9 points for Romney.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:02:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Turned hard right in 2008? (0+ / 0-)

        Are you kidding? I mean, my god.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:07:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  If Obama can at least match John Kerry (0+ / 0-)

        in the red districts and get about where he did in 2008 in the bluer ones, he should be able to get to 45 percent without a problem. In fact, he should be able to get to 47 or 48 percent fairly easily.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:18:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I Think Obama Would Kill To Get The Numbers..... (0+ / 0-)

          ....that John Kerry got in rural Missouri this year.

          •  No offense to you, but how low is he going (0+ / 0-)

            to go? It really irritates me that there's all of this doom and gloom with zero specificity to the numbers and/or which areas are involved. There's only so much further he can fall without losing every single potential voter. I guess it's possible he could drop into the teens in some of these areas, if not further, but if you're willing to vote for Barack Obama the first time, are you really going to be against him the second time? Surely some will, but that many people?

            Take a look at this old post of mine.

            Now, to look at the numbers a slightly different way, in 2008, Obama received about 1,442,000 votes overall, with about 1,009,000 of them from the ten biggest counties and about 433,000 in the rest of the state. McCain's total in the ten biggest counties was about 752,000 out of about 1,446,000 leaving him with about 693,000 votes in the rest of the state. Now let's say that Obama's totals in the other counties in the state was halved, leaving him with about 217,000 votes. If you take that way from his total, but leave them in the total voter pool and giving them to other candidates, then he's brought down to about 1,225,000. This changes his total to about 41.80 percent.

            This assumes a few things that won't go exactly the same way, like that the vote would be halved in the same way throughout all remaining counties and thinking that his support could hold up almost as well in the biggest counties while he's decimated in the smaller ones, but very roughly speaking, it should show he can fall dramatically and still not look no different than he would in Utah. Will his suppor fall that dramatically? Perhaps it will. But at the same time, he was getting 30-something percent in a lot of these counties. Short of a repeat of 2010, I'm not sure how much further he can fall.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:08:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I Think Obama Underperforms Kerry By At Least 5... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, jncca

              ....in the aggregate of Missouri's rural counties.  It might even be as much as 10.  Obama will likely do better than Kerry in the St. Louis area, but everywhere else in the state I think he'll long for Kerry's numbers.  Just my sense of where Missourians are based on 2008 and 2010 numbers.  Along the same lines, I think you'll see the biggest decline in Obama's numbers in Iowa in the southern two tiers of counties bordering Missouri.

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