Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: On debate eve, polls show Romney hurting in swing states (again) (196 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Here is the thing (11+ / 0-)

    virtually ALL state polling is with likely voters.

    Today Obama had his best day of state polling this year.  The 6 polls released 9/30 (NH +15, NC -4, NC 0, OH +5,OH +9, FL+3) project to an  8.1 Obama lead. In addition, the one 10/1 poll in NC was O+2 (which projects to a 9.3 point lead).

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:42:58 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  yeah, lots of lv at this time of year. few rv. nt. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair
    •  Here is by graph (12+ / 0-)

      Note the growing gap between the national number and the state number.  This is a 5 day rolling average.

      I am proud to say I have done this since 2000, and I don't think anyone else runs this comparison:
      Photobucket

      And why you should trust state averages more than national averages - a very revealing chart from 2000, the 5 day moving average of state an national polling, with the days remaining in the race.
      Photobucket

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:59:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  + (0+ / 0-)

        I like your chart a lot.  538 does a mix of state and national polls to come up with the final margin.  The final margin may be fairly irrelevant here, since Obama will get trounced in many Southern states, Utah, Idaho, etc, and there are less states where Romney gets completely trounced, so the swing state averages are what is most relevant.  The state averages do not genrally include states that are out of reach, and frankly, I would only think that about 15 states are relevant at all for polling, since 35 states are easily out of reach one way or the other.

        •  You need (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          all of the polls to spot trends.  Of the 199 polls in September, 133 were in close states.   You get a fair number of polls with Senate races (eg Mass) which are not close.

          The close state average is for the month 3.93 is almost identical to the overall month average 4.034.  

          The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

          by fladem on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:06:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site