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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: On debate eve, polls show Romney hurting in swing states (again) (196 comments)

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  •  For all the crap thrown at Nate Silver.... (8+ / 0-)

    in this thread, his latest article (10/1) in Five Thirty eight (whatever) addresses this specific question, as to whether the polls are "tightening."  He concludes that no, they really aren't.  However, his model anticipates the polls to tighten, as we get closer to November 6.

    But even with anticipating the polls getting tighter, Silver still forecasts the chances of President Obama being reelected at roughly 85%.

    More than the national polls, though, what the hell can anyone be thinking, in terms of the electoral college?  Silver's analysis has Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin as "Likely Obama;" and Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Mexico as "Safe Obama."

    In what UNIVERSE, absent President Obama getting a federal RICO conviction for murder and drug trafficking between now and November 6, that Romney gets to 270 votes in the electoral college?

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