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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: On debate eve, polls show Romney hurting in swing states (again) (196 comments)

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  •  NBC/Marist OH, FL, VA (5+ / 0-)

    OH:  Obama 51-43

    FL:  Obama 47-46

    VA:  Obama 48-46

    http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 02:43:36 AM PDT

    •  Ohio again way out ahead (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash

      among the "big 3" of the battleground states. While Romney has hills to climb in most of the contested states he has mountains in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. These are the states that seem by far most likely to deliver the required 270 EVs to Obama.

    •  Their FL and VA polls skew way too old (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, Sylv, askew

      For some reason, they called far fewer cell phones than last time. That's probably a big part of the reason only 8% of likely voters they polled in Florida were under 30 (compared to 15% in the 2008 exit poll) and a ridiculous 42% were over 60 (17% over 65 in 2008).

      In Virginia, only 11% of likely voters polled were under 30 (compared to 21% in 2008) and 30% over 60 (11% over 65 in 2008.

      •  I presume they must have reweighted though (0+ / 0-)

        otherwise in FL in particular it's hard to see how Obama could have any kind of lead.

        •  Hmm, not so much (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, Sylv, itskevin, badlands

          They seem to be projecting around 30% of the electorate under-45 and 70% 45+, versus 40-60 last time. That's a pretty big call and makes a significant difference given the age skew of the numbers. Obama's lead would rise to 3 points in FL on this sample if under-45s are the same proportion of the electorate as 4 years ago.

      •  For VA, their race balance must be nuts (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash, Sylv, itskevin

        Obama is "only" down 20 among whites, 1 point less than in 2008, and is up 82-13 among non-whites. With a racial turnout similar to 2008 that would give him almost the same margin as 2008. To get it down to 2% you have to have a white share of the electorate of 75%, 5% MORE than 4 years ago.

        That is just utterly ridiculous - what are Marist playing at?!

        VA crosstabs are here [pdf] in case anyone else wants to double-check.

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