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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: National Democrats make move into Arizona Senate race (162 comments)

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  •  What's Up With That Weak Florida Number? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, tietack

    How much are they projecting Obama has dropped in FL?  Like six points in a week?

    •  Looks more legit than the VA one (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MartyM

      Obama has fallen back among Independents from a single-digits lead to a single-digits deficit, according to this.

      However the age-profile of their projected FL electorate is starting to be an issue. In 2008 under-45s were around 40% of the electorate; in their previous FL poll it was something like 34-35% and now it's closer to 30%. There is evidence that youth engagement is down a bit from 4 years ago but a shift on this scale would be pretty surprising. It makes quite a difference to Obama's overall numbers as he wins the under-45 vote handily while losing among over-45s. With a 2008 age profile he would be ahead by a couple more points in FL.

      •  Can Obama win Florida? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        considering all the draconian voter suppression laws passed by the GOP legislature including severe restrictions and fines on voter registrations - $5,000 a day per registration that was not submitted within a 48 hour period of signing.

        It was so bad that the League of Women Voters refused to register voters - hence, Democratic registrations are wayyyy down.

        "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

        by MartyM on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:02:37 AM PDT

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        •  When it was closer at the beginning of the year... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MartyM

          ...during GOP primary season I had already written off Florida for Obama... I guess we're back to numbers like that already... I definitely do not trust Florida's handling of the election, and if this is close I will be shocked if Obama wins.

          Disappointing numbers to say the least. I would think Medicare would be important enough for seniors to give FL to Obama again.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:46:07 AM PDT

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        •  The GOP had to cancel their registration drive (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden

          and despite the change in law, Dems are way ahead of Republicans in new voter registration even though the 2012 numbers are down from 2008.

    •  I almost thought it was snark from Mark27 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, LordMike

      Some of his assessments seem realistic lately.... ;)

    •  It's called noise (7+ / 0-)

      Honestly, people who get worked up over individual polls need to just look at a chart of polls in a state or nationally over time, and read it for a minute.

      Then go back and do the same in retrospect with 2008 polling, and then 2004 polling.

      What you'll find is that polling averages are pretty close to the mark, but that there are quite a few outliers in the polls blended in.  And the outliers go in both directions.

      Whatever the RCP or Pollster polling averages are in a given state, you can practically take it to the bank that those averages correctly predict the winner and, within about 3 points, the margin in most states (although there are notable exceptions on pegging the margin).

      In 2008, the only state the RCP average had the wrong outcome was Indiana, but even there the error was only 2.3%, from 1.4% McCain polling average lead to a 0.9% Obama win.

      In 2004, the RCP average was wrong only in Wisconsin and Hawaii, but Hawaii doesn't really count because they had only two sketchy October polls in the average and of course we've all learned how bad polling can be there especially in understating Democratic strength.  And in Wisconsin RCP had Bush only by 0.9%, when he lost by 0.2% for a mere 1.1% error.

      Plus, these averages are somewhat arbitrary in deciding where to cut off polls in time for deciding the average.

      Right now, the RCP averages have Obama winning every battleground where there are TV ad buys except for North Carolina which currently is an exact tie.  And Obama's smallest margin is 2 points in Florida, and 3.1 points in the next closest states.  So it's pretty set in stone that Obama would win all those states today, and end up with 332 or 347 electoral votes depending on which way NC falls.

      The high-end and low-end polls don't really cause any problems in all this, nor does noise by the same pollster cause problems.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:04:38 AM PDT

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      •  Yeah, if you wanna be logical (7+ / 0-)

        I prefer panic, its more interesting.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:09:32 AM PDT

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        •  Hahahaha (0+ / 0-)

          Great line, that's what I live by.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:49:24 AM PDT

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        •  DCCyclone needs to tighten up (0+ / 0-)

          you need to get all panicky, dude.....all this " science" and "statistics" and actually reading the pollsters notes and comments is stopping me from freaking out..and I think others have the same problem...I see trend-lines that if followed show that in 4-5 of the "real" swing states mean that if the election is moved to next June 5th, we would have a tie and the issue would go to the House ...i think you should start making yourself useful and make up a list of "swing reps" who we need to call and make sure they know to vote for Obama and where their seat is on the floor when everyone is there

      •  It's also important to remember that many states (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        eps62

        in question have had very small margins for a few cycles now. Florida and Ohio are certainly on that list. Thus, when Obama only leads by five, that's still huge.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 07:33:17 AM PDT

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