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View Diary: AZ-Sen: PPP Has Dr. Richard Carmona (D) Beating Jeff Flake (R) By 2! (28 comments)

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  •  I'm feeling more & more optimistic Carmona (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    helpImdrowning

    can win this. Looking at their crosstabs, I think PPP is also over sampling Republicans. Their party breakdown:

    Democrat ........................................................ 29%
    Republican...................................................... 46%
    Independent/Other.......................................... 25%

    Again, from the AZ Sec. of State registered voter roll as of Aug. 2012, registration is:

    Republican 36%
    Democrat 31%
    Independent 31%

    Of course that doesn't mean actual voters will be exactly that, but their crosstab on enthusiasm on voting is:

    Republican 63% Very excited, 15% not at all excited
    Democrat: 71% very excited, 11% not excited at all
    Independent: 44% very excited, 20% not at all excited

    Our biggest challenge is the 50/40 who prefer Republican control of the Senate over Democratic control. I blog on TucsonCitizen.com and I've had one consistent conservative comment that he likes Carmona and doesn't like Flake, but he won't vote for Carmona because he doesn't want to "help Obama". Helpfully guys like that vote for the Libertarian Senate candidate. In another recent poll I saw where he was included he was polling 4% - we need to get that up to be sure of clinching this.

    David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

    by Dave in AZ on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 03:26:29 PM PDT

    •  Missouri Raz Poll: Voters want GOP control of (0+ / 0-)

      the Senate only 42% want Dem control. But in the same poll, favor McCaskill 51-45 over AKin.

      http://atr.rollcall.com/...

      So that may not play such a major roll in AZ after all.

      David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

      by Dave in AZ on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 04:31:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  how does registration compare to turnout? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dave in AZ

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 09:58:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dunno. Sec. of State doesn't tally votes by party (0+ / 0-)

        Only something like exit polling would reveal turnout by party, and I don't find any data for AZ.

        David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

        by Dave in AZ on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 12:26:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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