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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: New poll shows Carmona up two points over Flake (110 comments)

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  •  That would sound more realistic, but (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades

    that means it was skewed toward white, southern, etc. etc.   instead of exclusively.  Still feeds their 'comeback' meme.  

    •  We KNOW it's not exclusively white Southerners... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, askew, KingofSpades

      ...over 50 based on the margins of error.

      If it was exclusively white Southerners over 50, then the margins of error would be the same for the total sample and whites and the total sample and Southerners, and the total sample and voters over 50.

      But they're not the same.

      The MoE for whites is a little bit higher than the total. 5% vs. 4.5%.

      The MoE for over 50 is a little bit higher than the total, 5.5% vs. 4.5%.

      And the MoE for Southerners is a lot higher than the total, 8.5% vs. 4.5%.

      The regional crosstab shows that Southerners couldn't have been remotely close to the entire sample.  But each of the three other categories obviously was too small alone to report.

      I didn't study the MoEs in typing my last comment, now having done so it's clear they reveal a major demographic skew.  Indeed, the skew is so bad that I'm surprised the poll isn't even more favorable to Romney than it is.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:31:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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