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View Diary: So, about that CNN Snap Poll (290 comments)

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  •  uhh>???? (1+ / 0-)
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    Seneca Doane

     Did you read the makeup of those polled?

    •  That's what Nate does for a living (1+ / 0-)
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      kat68

      Are all the polls wrong?  

      I grant you the polls could be off.  Still a disaster.

      Mrick

      •  uhhh no but.. (2+ / 0-)
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        wishingwell, Seneca Doane

         This poll was all white,all over 50 ,more men then women and all from the South . I think that is far different skewing then what GOPers have been complaining about.

        •  Again (2+ / 0-)
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          Paper Cup, Yosef 52

          This isn't the only poll.  It may be flawed.  But there are other polls.  

          Barack stood there and let Romney say whatever he wanted to say and the push back was mild.  He gave Romney the debate.  It is going to have an effect.  Perception is reality in these things.

          Read the article at fivethirtyeight that I linked.

          Mrick

          •  But one thing no one, not even Nate, can really (0+ / 0-)

            positively predict is how this will affect polling in key battleground states.  What most care about is the Electoral numbers. He cannot predict the future and which states will show Mitt gaining in and what will happen in the next 30 days that could change the election.

            No one knows for sure. Granted, Nate knows a great deal and I am thinking he is probably spot on and correct but no one really has a crystal ball.  Will Mitt gain points in key battleground states.

            I will panic when Mitt gains 4 or 5 pts in OH, WI, NV, FL.

            Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

            by wishingwell on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:12:48 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Read the NYT link to Nate Silver's article (3+ / 0-)
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          NotGeorgeWill, fou, Mrick

          Besides the poll results themselves, he says

          ... the conventional wisdom was that Mr. Obama had a lackluster performance throughout most of the debate — he certainly had an extremely cautious and defensive strategy...
          with the silver lining being the fact that Obama didn't say anything that would provide the wingers with YouFaceTwit clips or soundbites that might hurt him.

          The conventional wisdom - according to Nate Silver who I trust implicitly - is that Obama lost the debate with a lackluster performance. Anyone who wants to quibble with any given poll for whatever reason is grasping for straws in an effort to dismiss the results with a hand wave.

      •  Not necessarily a disaster . . . (1+ / 0-)
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        wishingwell

        I think one mitigating factor is that there aren't many undecided voters at this point.  The debates might factor into their decision, but a guy can win the debates and still lose the election.

      •  It appears to me that Nate only reported (2+ / 0-)
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        wishingwell, wu ming

        from The Hill article. I don't think he looked at the poll results.

        Others have simply gotten old. I prefer to think I've been tempered by time.

        by Just Bob on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:11:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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