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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Earliest post-debate polling hints at minimal boost for Romney (191 comments)

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  •  Allan Lichtman is still sticking with Obama (6+ / 0-)
    •  Here's why Lichtman picks Obama (13+ / 0-)
      Here's a rundown of Lichtman's keys predicting an Obama victory.

      Where Obama Loses

          Party mandate: After 87 freshman Republicans swept the House in 2010, the Democrats have fewer seats in the House of Representatives than they had in 2008. Obama loses big here.
          Long term economy: Obama lost this key last fall and still hasn't won it back. Real per capita economic growth during this term still isn't equal to or better than the average growth during the two previous terms.
          Incumbent Charisma: Lichtman says the message of "hope" and "change" isn't as intoxicating for voters as it was in 2008. Obama loses this key.

      Where Obama Wins

          Contest: No one stepped up to unseat Obama in the primary this year.
          Incumbency: Spending four years in the White House can only be an advantage.
          Third party: Despite their best efforts, Ron Paul's supporters couldn't convince the libertarian-leaning congressman to jump in the presidential race as an independent. Also, libertarian Gary Johnson hasn't broken through the poll threshold needed to deem him a significant threat. Obama wins this key.
          Short-term economy: As long as the country stays out of a double-dip recession, Obama can claim this key as a victory. "The economy is not in recession," Lichtman says. "It may be in a unhappy recovery, but that is not the same as a recession."
          Significant policy change: Obama won this key after he overhauled the country's healthcare system and implemented the largest stimulus in history.
          Social unrest: Occupy Wall Street protests and the Tea Party movement don't count as signs of social unrest, Lichtman says. Obama picks up this key.
          Scandal: Lichtman says Obama's presidency has been squeaky clean so far, with Solyndra and the "Fast and Furious" gun-running scandal not enough to disqualify him. "There is no whiff of a Watergate," Lichtman says.
          Foreign/Military Success: Osama bin Laden is dead and the troops are out of Iraq, which is enough to keep Obama winning overseas.
          Foreign/Military Failure: While Lichtman admits the death of an ambassador is never good for a president's re-election bid, it's no Bay of Pigs. "It is not big enough to be a foreign policy disaster, and it doesn't come close to past examples," Lichtman says. "Anything can still happen in foreign policy, but it would have to be huge to flip this key."
          Challenger Charisma: While the keys no longer deem Obama as being charismatic, he still has his challenger beat in that department. "Mitt Romney? Are you joking? If you pick up the dictionary for uncharismatic, there is his picture."

      We'll take that as another Obama win.

      •  Very nice report (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        orangeuglad, MichaelNY

        Thanks for sharing.

        And very nice of Allan Lichtman and US News not to complain about any possible violation of fair use ... at least, not yet.

        Maybe next time try to paraphrase a few of the points, just so dKos doesn't get scolded, you know what I mean?

        -----------------

        Back when I was a journalist, I got a scolding letter from lawyers for US News for using a subhead -- not a title, but a title on a paragraph within a page-long piece -- "News You Can Use". At the time, that was the tagline on their ads. Our lawyers told me to laugh it off that one time -- but not to use that phrase again. :-(

      •  On the one hand you can say (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that most of these keys were already decided months ago (and he did do his initial forecast last year I believe). So this isn't really news.

        On the other this shouldn't be dismissed out of hand - if you project it back to previous presidential elections it has a better record of picking the winner than most other model-based approaches.

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