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View Diary: Unemployment Rate and Jobs Added Numbers Come from DIFFERENT SURVEYS (33 comments)

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  •  As I noted in ... (0+ / 0-)

    ....this diary over the long run, ADP and CES have been pretty much in sync. An excerpt:

    ADP bases its report on the payrolls it processes for some 430,000 businesses covering about 24 million employees. [Methodology here.] BLS bases its report on its Current Employment Statistics survey of 410,000 worksites. [Methodology here.]

    Over the past six months ending in August, the BLS has reported 629,000 new seasonally adjusted private-sector jobs have been created, with 49,000 lay-offs in the public sector. The ADP, on the other hand, has reported the creation of 978,000 new private-sector jobs, also seasonally adjusted. A huge disparity.

    However, if you take into account the past 18 months, it's another story. For the eight months from March-October 2011, the BLS reported more private-sector jobs than ADP. In fact, 388,000 more. This was followed by a four-month "transition" in which ADP reported more jobs one month and the BLS reported more the next. Since March of this year, ADP has reported more.

    For the entire 18-month period, ADP has reported a gain of 2.887 million new private jobs. BLS has reported 2.917 million new jobs. Remarkably close. Especially when compared with often large differences between them each month.

    Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

    by Meteor Blades on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:08:12 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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