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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Attack of the Republican Snap-Pollsters (306 comments)

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  •  OH 2008 Polls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, SoCalLiberal

    Around this time most of the polls had Obama winning but there was a Zogby aroun this time that was 50-45 McCain.

    •  I think that shows a lot (6+ / 0-)

      of momentum for McCain. Looks like he'll take Ohio. Oh wait.

      The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

      by pollbuster on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:05:54 PM PDT

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    •  2008 isn't 2012 (3+ / 0-)
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      belzaboo, auapplemac, llywrch

      Obviously, but you know what I mean.

      2008, the GOP was the in-control party during an epic financial meltodwn.  McCain had ZERO chance to win that election.

      This time, as much as we make fun of Romney, Obama is in charge during a still-crappy economy, and Mitt isn't a cranky 1,000-year-old like McCain, and can still bring some debate chops unlike, apparently, Obama.

      The jobs numbers are great (politically) and thank God.

      Big Bird?  A sideshow.  Won't move a single vote, in my view.  Killing PBS has been a GOP evergreen and no one cares, really, on either side.

      It's a decent bet O-Man will be behind in most of the nationals by mid-next week.  He was awful  in the biggest moment of the campaign so far, and the (national) polling already shows it, despite the happy talk.

      •  Wrong again (21+ / 0-)

        The jobs report pretty much killed any momentum Romney might have garnered from this. Especially the unemployment dropping under 8%. That's a big milestone, since how many times have we heard "no president since FDR has been reelected with unemployment over 8%" this election cycle? (Ignoring, of course, that no president since FDR has had to deal with economic conditions like this.)

        But be nervous and all that and then feel foolish when your worries turn out to be for nothing.

      •  Where does (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash, pollbuster, itskevin, askew, Linda1961, IM

        the national polling show any overall change in the race? Gallup.O+1, Ras. No change. Reuters? R +3. Not much movement at all and certainly not enough to lead one to believe that somehow Obama will be down a couple to few points across the board a week from now.

        •  Gallup is ONE DAY out of seven (2+ / 0-)
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          auapplemac, Losty

          That's post-debate!  Reuters is 2 of 5, and the lead has gone from 9 to 5!

          How is this 'no change'?  

          And now we use Raz to prove a point?

          Why such aversion to reality here?

          •  Dude, you're a little unhinged (15+ / 0-)

            You put forward a "reality" which doesn't yet and may not ever exist (your national polling prediction) and are criticizing everyone who isn't as pessimistic as you.  It's frankly a little silly, since you do it on a constant basis.

            The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

            by rfahey22 on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:47:51 PM PDT

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          •  Reuters is four daily samples, not five (4+ / 0-)
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            itskevin, EcosseNJ, LordMike, askew

            It shows a five date range, but the last "day" is only the morning of the release day. The first day of the sample is from the mid-morning or mid-day cutoff on, so it's four 24 hours samples.

            That changes the math somewhat on how much of an influence one day can have.

          •  Yeah, but you'd expect (4+ / 0-)

            a small move in Gallup. It was clear in Gallup that Obama was getting a bump during the convention, even though the poll never moved by more than 2 net points in a single day. That Obama actually gained yesterday suggests the day was nothing special for Romney.

            Rasmussen is a 3 day track and is worth something, if only for trends.

            Even the Reuters poll isn't that bad Obama was at 46-41 on both Monday and Tuesday in that poll - and his RV score was actually worse on Monday.

            This said, I do think Romney will gain from his debate performance, and I think the totality of polling shows this. He has been performing under - almost certainly - his floor, which I'd say is 47% (no pun intended), so there was room for him to grow if he could give those inclined to support him a reason to vote for him. But your prediction that he will be down in all national polls next week is  much too extreme and is not born out by data.

          •  I understand very well (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Micheline, Stroszek, LordMike

            That Gallup is on a 7 day rolling. And however terrible Ras is overall as a pollster, it doesn't mean that it's totally worthless for comparison. Also, Obama's top line number has been unchanged in Reuters, showing no loss in support.

            So, I'd say its relatively insane to predict a national trend based on 2 days of just 1 poll.

            I still might be wrong, and you might be right. But that doesn't mean that your prediction is based in sound evaluation of data.

            The theory that somehow clutching our pearls, standing by the fainting couch, and setting our hair on fire will help us win elections has been proven false over the last 30-50 years.

            I'm more the type who invests in popcorn futures.

      •  Pessimistic much? The job numbers have (12+ / 0-)

        Totally killed Romney's chance of becoming president. Even if the jobs numbers were not good Romney would still have lost. Americans never elect someone has unlikable has Romney.  

        •  Probably so (3+ / 0-)

          but any more bad debate performances by President Obama and he will be in deep deep trouble.  Regardless of the job numbers.  The worst part of the debate performance this week was the impression that he didn't want to be there.

          WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

          by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:50:14 PM PDT

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          •  Funny. The worst part to me was that a compulsive, (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Linda1961, jofr, askew, vcmvo2

            shameless and soulless man smirked, bullied and lied for 90 minutes to the American people, seeking the Presidency as the representative of his party.

            I guess your mileage varies. But my knowledge and support of the Other Guy go a little deeper than 'very reluctant.'

            Just so you know, since you're new here, I'm an independent, too--never have been nor will I ever be a member of Team D or [God forbid!] R.

            Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

            by earicicle on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:52:52 PM PDT

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            •  Well we'll have to disagree (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Romney may not have gotten away with telling untruths if his opponent had called him out on any of it.  Romney wasn't that good, it was just that Obama was that bad.

              People here think that Romney is basically a monster, and people on the right-wing sites think President Obama is a America-hating black socialistic communistic Muslim.

              Neither picture is anywhere near accurate.  I have much more of a problem with GOP base; the Christian right and the "teabaggers" than I do with Romney himself, who is basically just a politician with no minimal core values who does what he needs to do to survive.

              WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

              by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 09:23:15 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Welcome, UID #576,736. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew, vcmvo2

                We look forward to hearing more about these 'cultural issues' that make you such a reluctant supporter of Prez O. The Prez & I go way back, as fellow natives of Hawaii, so his 'cultural issues' are my cultural issues.

                I suspect we might have a problem.

                Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

                by earicicle on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 01:32:49 AM PDT

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                •  I think you misunderstand (0+ / 0-)

                  Cultural issues, such as equality for women, choice, gay rights, sexual freedom, secularism etc, as well as the Supreme Court which decides these issues are why I am voting for Obama.  If not for these issues and the importance of them to me, I would probably vote for Romney.

                  WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

                  by WiscIndy on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 07:19:17 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  If Obama had called him out on it? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                vcmvo2, earicicle

                Obama - your tax plan will cost $5 trillion.
                Romney - no it won't
                Obama - yes it will
                Romney - no it won't.

                What more would you like Obama to do?

                Obama - this 716 billion line is crap - Paul Ryan voted for the same thing and it won't cut benefits.
                Romney - you cut 716 billion
                Obama - no, I didn't
                Romney - yes, you did

                Obama - You were in favor of Romneycare, now you're against my plan. What gives
                Romney - Romneycare isn't Obamacare
                Obama - Republicans say it is
                Romney - It isn't.

                What more do you want President Obama to do? Start whining and crying and asking Jim Lehrer to say he's right?

                If Ed and Chris Matthews had spent half the time they were going unhinged, screaming at the president post-debate and really pushed the "Romney was lying the entire time" meme maybe it gets picked up by the broader press.

                But instead, we get "See, even liberals think the president sucks."

                When we stop putting leaders from the past up on pedestals and ignoring their flaws, we can start seeing our present leaders for what they really are.

                by PhillyJeff on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 09:12:41 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  this ^^^! (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  Excellent comment!

                  I was appalled at Romney's continuous non-stop lying. How do you debate a liar? You can't , especially when even the moderator refuses to moderate.

                  Plus Romney gave the appearance of a man amped up on speed or caffeine. A repulsive performance. No integrity or dignity at all.

                  In our sleep, pain which cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart until, in our own despair, comes wisdom through the awful grace of God ~RFK

                  by vcmvo2 on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 03:30:02 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  A-freakin'-men. (0+ / 0-)

                  Rebutting the arguments of egomaniacal liars with facts is pointless. I know. I share DNA with one--my brother.

                  Guess who he's voting for?

                  Thanks, PhillyJeff. I can't believe you have to state what should be obvious to simpering pundits and whimpering Kossacks alike. Thank God the vast majority of American voters can't be bothered with this navel-gazing shit. I hear most of 'em have jobs now! ;-)

                  Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

                  by earicicle on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 05:31:11 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  I expect respectable polls (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Voodoo king, savvyspy, exterris

        to be within the margin of error nationally, with Obama slightly ahead in Ohio and Wisconsin, and very close in the other swing states.  (Although I'm now convinced that Nevada has a Republican polling bias.)

        WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

        by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:51:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  romney has way less appeal (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, Linda1961, vcmvo2

        to independents and democrats than mccain. and his veep doesn't keep the fundies happy nearly as well as palin did. i fully expect romney to do worse than mccain, when all is said and done.

      •  Oh're trolling again. (7+ / 0-)

        Big bird is not a side show. Its endemic to all that Rs believe about governance. If it ain't defense or tax cuts for the rich, they want it gone. Killing Big Bird represents killing Medicare, food stamps, stopping abortions, eliminating Obamacare. Any thing humanistic that helps people does not interest Rs. That why Mitt's comments regarding PBS needs to haunt him for the rest of the campaign.

      •  This is a ridiculous statement. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Linda1961, askew

        "... and can still bring some debate chops unlike, apparently, Obama."

        "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

        by rubyr on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:40:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Wow! You sound exactly like Charlie Cook (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        at the debate post mortem on Friday.
        Sponsored by National Journal and United Technologies.

        Big bird is way more than a sideshow.
        I am touched by your enthusiasm and
        cheerfully ask you to name your wager.

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