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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Attack of the Republican Snap-Pollsters (306 comments)

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  •  There's no bounce (13+ / 0-)

    There are a couple disreputable "pollsters" who are right-wingers and spit out numbers favorable to their party today in a few battlegrounds.

    And there are three national polls of which two show Obama, not Romney, actually ticking up, and the third shows Romney ticking up.  All three really just look like random noise.  And none of the three is very reputable used to be but has become unreliable in recent years.

    You're sitting there arguing whether a "bounce" will last, for a bounce that up to now doesn't exist.

    And it wouldn't be detected yet if it did exist, since it's been 48 hours and takes awhile for any reliable polling to even be possible.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:28:47 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I think there is some bounce (8+ / 0-)

      there almost always is after a debate where a challenger gets on the stage with an incumbent the first time, it is almost inevitable that their standing improves. But I do not believe it will significantly affect the race, I'm not ready to concede any battleground state or NE-2 at this point.

      •  I think the bounce is energized inevitable Romney (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, wishingwell, bythesea, Supavash

        voters. They are right now more willing to say they'll vote for Romney, but were probably going to in the end, either way.

        •  Maybe (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          but there is also the affect of possibly engaging people who were disengaged before. Kerry saw some artificially high poll numbers right after his first debate with Kerry in 04 (anyone want to guess the pollster and the RV/LV spreads?) but in fact it at least partly resulted from people supporting him with no excitement being more engaged, and hence responding to polls when they wouldn't before.

      •  Then prove it (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pollbuster, LordMike

        Where is it?  I just identified all the post-debate polls, and there isn't any reliable polling demonstrating any bounce.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:53:25 PM PDT

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        •  Reuters/Ipsos shouldn't just be dismissed (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, bridav58, Supavash

          even if they are using an internet method.

          Beyond that, we will have to wait longer for "proof" one way or another. I agree the polls released today are inconclusive although I feel confident "unskewing" Rasmussen to conclude Romney has cut Obama's lead in OH and VA, and may have pulled essentially even in FL.

          •  This is frustrating, a lesson in polling (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            First, Rasmussen, such as it is,  isn't showing any Romney  improvement in Ohio.  They were 47-46 Obama before 50-49 Obama now.  Before that previous poll, they had a 45-45 tie.  All this while in reality Obama led by mid-to-high single-digits.

            Second, in Virginia Ras has had either a one-point lead or a tie the whole time, a one-point lead for Romney now is just noise.

            Third, there's no "unskewing" a bad pollster.  You take a pollster at their word or reject them altogether.  There's no "fixing" a bad methodology by pretending the numbers are something different.

            Rasmussen is not a valid pollster, period.

            There's no valid polling showing any bump.

            If there ever is a bump, we won't see reliable indication of it for several more days.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:48:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Actually Rassmussen does move within a pattern (0+ / 0-)

              so I will continue to believe I can unskew their results within a reasonable range. I am basing my overall observations on the collective data including PPP's tweets.

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