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View Diary: The exit poll reduction: Penny wise and pound foolish? (121 comments)

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  •  Yes, agree with everything. But you are missing (4+ / 0-)

    the sytemic bias in the choice of excluded states. Consider the regional breakdown of omitted states in terms of electoral votes:

    Northeast - 10
    Midwest - 11
    West - 20
    South - 108 (inc. WV)

    Yes - overwhelmingly the south is going to be disproportionately ignored by the exit polls. The omissions in other regions of the country, at least in terms of population, are trivial; but the majority of the south will not have exit polls.

    Furthermore, look at their treatment of blue vs. red states: every one of the 12 leargest blue states will have exit polls. As for red states? Neither of the two largest will have exit polls - the only two states in the top 16 to not have exit polls. In fact, if you count IN, MO and AZ as swing states, none of the ten largest red states will have exit polls.

    Again: the 12 largest blue states WILL have exit polls. The ten largest red states WILL NOT have exit polls.

    I have no idea what their rationale here could possibly have been, but the decision-making process seems just terrible.

    •  But why??? my question (0+ / 0-)
      •  I don't know. (1+ / 0-)
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        I don't think it's anything pernicious necessarily. But a typical sort of dismissiveness about the south may have been in play, maybe. Or New York media guys have second homes in Vermont, so they damn well better exit poll that state! sort of thing. Frankly, though, I don't really know.

        •  but if they are basically "calling" the South and (1+ / 0-)
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          thus not needing data (due to "costs'....yeah, right)  then why wouldn't they do the same for California and New York and most of the North ect.

          It makes zero sense.

          •  They probably know some CA/NY Republicans (0+ / 0-)

            but are far less likely to know Democrats in the South other than by stereotypes about Dixiecrats. Not the only time the media has been dismissive of Southerners, especially those that don't match their stereotypes (e.g. white Obama voters or immigrants living in the South).

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 12:00:59 PM PDT

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