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View Diary: Obama's post-debate polling collapse that isn't (303 comments)

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  •  The Rasmussen polls really show no movement... (16+ / 0-)

    Of their last two Ohio polls. one had Obama up +1, one had Romney and Obama tied. This poll has Obama up +1.

    Of their last two Florida polls, one showed Romney +2, and one showed Obama +2. Now he has them tied. Purely statistical noise there.

    Of their last two Virginia polls, one had Romney and Obama tied, and one had Obama +1. This one has Romney +1.

    So of all Rasmussen's polling of OH/VA/FL in the 4-6 weeks, he has never shown anything but +2/-1 margin for Obama in any state.

    So nothing has changed -- at all -- in Rasmussen's polling. And that includes his daily tracker.

    The only polls that show tightening at this point have been the Thurs one-night We Ask American robopolls, and the Ipsos online tracker.

    'Fie upon the Congress' - Sen Bob Byrd

    by Maxwell on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 12:43:36 PM PDT

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    •  Yes... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      That is true.

      Why is Mitt Rmoney so happy that an American embassy was attacked? Why does he hate America?

      by RichM on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 12:50:51 PM PDT

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    •  frequency (0+ / 0-)

      When were the last polls taken? I don't know how the Rasmussen Reports swing state polls work.

      If those polls were from October 3rd and October 4th then I agree is no real movement. If they were from September 20 and September 10, however, then I think we have to compare to recent polls while controlling for bias.

      The most recent (non-Rasmussen Reports) polls from the Virginia and Florida show Obama with a very narrow 2 or so point edge. Assuming Rasmussen Reports is not biased, it would seem that Obama has lost about 3-4 points on Romney. Even if there is some bias, then Obama has still lost 1-2 points. However, I looked at the Rasmussen Reports polls of those states from the last month or two and they were generally in line with the other polling from the same time frame with occasional exceptions.

      The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny.

      by Tetris on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 01:32:45 PM PDT

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    •  Exactly..... (0+ / 0-)

      ...only WAA is showing any kind of substantial movement and one of those polls (Ohio) was the first time they polled that state which means they have no baseline to show it was any kind of bounce for Mitt.

      We will not get any kind of solid indication until more polling firms come out with further results.

    •  47% (0+ / 0-)

      That 47% comment that Romney made think will be his downfall any chance he had went out the window when he made that statement.

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