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View Diary: Obama's post-debate polling collapse that isn't (303 comments)

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  •  just read on andrew sullivan that (2+ / 0-)
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    xsonogall, Losty

    some swing state polling showed romney up in florida, ohio and virginia--by very little, mind you, but I am still worried and will probably remain that way until election results are in.  

    •  That's Raz, We Ask America & Gravis (3+ / 0-)
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      Dartagnan, PALiberal1, Curt Matlock

      Not completely dependable, let's say.  And in the case of Raz, as someone mentioned above, pretty much the same results they've been showing for a number of weeks.

      Still I don't like it, but even for the trollish likes of me, I'll reserve concern until better pollsters weigh in.

      •  Trend in those polls is frightening (1+ / 0-)
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        Losty

        Unless they all got together and colluded to create a Romney bounce (highly unlikely), it's clear - looking at the trend from the relevant prior polling- that Romney is getting @ 6 pt. bounce form the debate.  That's frightening.  6 pts moves a lot of states blue to red.

        Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

        by JCPOK on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 01:49:54 PM PDT

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        •  no, it's not clear, that's your assumption (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          emelyn, PALiberal1, Curt Matlock

          based on perhaps the most hyperbolic response to the debate I've seen so far.

          You're extrapolating from what you're guessing the single day numbers are (which, as you note, has a massive MOE) and asserting that what you've guessed those single results to be will hold over a 5 day period and give Romney a bounce three times larger than the next largest post-debate bounce.

          •  don't fall for his b.s. (1+ / 0-)
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            PALiberal1

            or hers.
            he/she/who cares - has been screaming for days that barack is finished.

            We consume the carcasses of creatures of like appetites, passions and organs with our own, and fill the slaughterhouses daily with screams of pain and fear. Robert Louis Stevenson

            by Christin on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 02:13:07 PM PDT

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        •  you are amusing. yet tedious. (2+ / 0-)
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          PALiberal1, sethtriggs

          it not embarrassing.
          with your "concerns".
          comment. after comment. after comment. for days.
          it's over barack obama. it's over.
            having fun?

           

          * [new] I agreed with you but then re-watched the debate. (1+ / 0-)
          Re-watching the debate cleanses you of your inherent biases - i.e., I was cheering for Obama during the first viewing.  This debate was a debacle of epic proportions. The damage will be lasting.  Obama cannot recover from this.

          Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

          by JCPOK on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 10:03:34 AM EDT

          We consume the carcasses of creatures of like appetites, passions and organs with our own, and fill the slaughterhouses daily with screams of pain and fear. Robert Louis Stevenson

          by Christin on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 02:12:23 PM PDT

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    •  OH concerns me a lot (1+ / 0-)
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      Losty

      I don't care if that's a bogus poll.

      All the GOP needs is a reason to portray OH as close, then Husted and the rest of his election board henchmen will do the rest. If we aren't winning by a lot there come November, I'm sorry but I think we're screwed by election theft. And we all know nothing ever gets done about that.

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 01:38:15 PM PDT

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      •  serious questions (3+ / 0-)
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        Stroszek, EcosseNJ, sethtriggs

        If you were a concern troll, would any part of your comment be worded differently? How would you go about striking a more fatalistic tone?

        In Ohio in 2004, the last ten pre-election polls gave Bush a mean margin of 1.9 points, and a median margin of 2 points. He won in the official count by 2.1 points. Probably it should have been less. That said, if Ken Blackwell could barely move the needle, what makes you think that we're doooooomed under Jon Husted if the Republicans can gin up one decent poll?

        Election protection: there's an app for that!
        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

        by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 02:06:49 PM PDT

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        •  That is honestly the first I've heard of that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HudsonValleyMark

          It's been CW for so long here that OH would have been Kerry's had it not been for Ken Blackwell's actions. Also I've read the numbers being manipulated after being reported (though that is more CTish than I'd like; but I'm not ruling it out; I admit I am paranoid)... Not being argumentative here, but are you now saying CW about OH in 2004 has been Dem sour grapes all along?

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 02:21:56 PM PDT

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          •  If Mark isn't I will (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HudsonValleyMark

            2004 'election theft' is our version of poll unskewing.  Kerry lost Ohio by the expected margin.

            2000? The pre-election Florida purge was a form of theft; the Palm Beach County ballot design a horror show of incompetence ... and then, of course, him and his purity-troll voters.

            And thanks again, Ralph (spit).

            •  Seriously, that's both a relief and disappointing (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HudsonValleyMark

              A relief because as long as stay ahead in OH even by a smaller margin, no need for paranoia (or IS THERE?).

              Disappointing that I've been here for around 4 years now and this is the first debunking of that I've heard. That could have helped me sleep a bit better some nights this past year.

              "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

              by xsonogall on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 02:45:13 PM PDT

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              •  I'll try to say more later (1+ / 0-)
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                xsonogall

                It has been an enormously contentious topic over the years. Some people were banned, with perhaps unfortunate side effects.

                Honestly, it's really nice to have a discussion without all the rancor; I wish I could tip you more. ;)

                I spend as much time as just about anyone here working on voting machine issues, but I don't start from the "We're screwed" place, and that really helps.

                Election protection: there's an app for that!
                Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

                by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 03:05:44 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well I am a sincere concern "troll" (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  HudsonValleyMark

                  The whole reason I signed up here was for people to talk me down. Obviously a lot of times I get worked up the other way but the ones I look forward to are posts that can legitimately make me feel wrong about my default starting point, which is typically "shit we're screwed because I read..." Unfortunately I'm just one of those wired that way; I find places like this help in general. This is one time that it did not.

                  "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

                  by xsonogall on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 03:41:55 PM PDT

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                  •  I respect that (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    xsonogall

                    I appreciate your giving me the benefit of the doubt that my first question really was serious (or maybe just ignoring it). I haven't doubted your sincerity, and that wasn't the point of my question. (It was more like "This helps how?")

                    I hope you can see how it wasn't necessarily obvious whether you would want to be talked down -- and I've encountered people who clearly just don't. Not that they're concern trolls, either, just stuck in a bad place where it's hard to talk.

                    Maybe there's a way I can pick your brain about things that would be interesting to discuss. It seems to me that in this election cycle, we've done a better job of avoiding meta wars and bringing attention to real problems. It also seems to me that some people are in the same boat you are, and it worries me.

                    Election protection: there's an app for that!
                    Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

                    by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 04:33:42 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Well really the main thing freaking me out... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      HudsonValleyMark

                      ...is that as soon as the GOP was able to take over the state governments of the swing states, they began this voter suppression campaign throughout and it seemed like their main strategy to "win" this election.

                      This really started worrying me, and as I frequented threads about these, the whole Ken Blackwell = Jon Husted theme appeared a lot. Multiple references to OH 2004 being stolen in comments without being refuted made it seem like CW (here at least). Whenever someone mentioned it (and FL 2000), multiple recs for that comment and many "I KNOW RIGHT" replies.  This was rarely challenged.

                      So a couple more diaries about the inconsistencies of the diebold voting machines, the IT guy who was about to give a deposition on shady GOP tactics mysteriously dying in a plane crash, etc, with very little pushback (if any) except for the standard "well then we must organize and GOTV!" (which to me would be useless against really complex election fraud strategies), and it's enough to push paranoid folks like me to the CT side.

                      Just FYI to see where I am coming from. In that world, it feels like the best way to fight back is awareness of the CT problem, hence me "trolling" this message anywhere I can.

                      You can imagine my surprise/relief/skepticism when finally today I hear my first legitimate-sounding pushback.

                      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

                      by xsonogall on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 05:43:54 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  voter suppression certainly is a strategy (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        xsonogall

                        It's sort of a twofer: hold down the Democratic vote, and appeal to nativists. It sometimes gets overblown as a strategy, but it's bad enough.

                        Yes, it's fairly common for people to regard Ohio 2004 theft as a proven fact. I challenge it pretty often when I see it, but for people who totally buy into it (like, totally), I might as well be a climate change denialist. A lot of people have given up in the interests of comity, or because it's just too darn frustrating. (That is true on all sides.)

                        I agree with you that GOTV wouldn't be much of an answer to the real nightmare voting machine/tabulation software scenarios. The security threats tend to be subtler than comments here would lead one to believe -- but the equipment really is hackable. That doesn't mean that it always gets hacked (or that it's easy to hack all of it at once, as some folks seem to worry about), but the vulnerability is important.

                        Unfortunately, a lot of the attempts to raise consciousness about it -- I'm not talking about comments on Daily Kos, but books and articles and speeches -- are so distorted that (1) the people who accept those messages aren't well equipped to address the real problems, and (2) the people who reject those messages tend to start backing away slowly when the real problems are mentioned. All IMHO of course.

                        I'm whipped. But I'll keep thinking about this. Thanks for the conversation!

                        Election protection: there's an app for that!
                        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

                        by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:27:08 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Yeah this has been a bit of a relief... (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          HudsonValleyMark

                          ...especially coming on the heels of that debate. I guess I could have done some research myself about what the polls looked like in OH in 2004 which would have helped debunk some of that, but better late than never.

                          If you write a diary on this like you hinted at in one of these comments I'll be sure to check in. Thanks.

                          Oh and GOTV. ;)

                          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

                          by xsonogall on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:37:14 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

            •  a new meme (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              xsonogall

              "X is our #unskewedpolls"

              Maybe it's time to try writing about this again. (But probably not....)

              Election protection: there's an app for that!
              Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

              by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 03:02:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  well, it's complicated (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            xsonogall, sethtriggs

            Just for fun, I'll open with a nitpick: "sour grapes" would mean "Kerry didn't want to be president anyway!" Some people may actually believe that, but that's pretty CT even for CT.

            Among political scientists, CW is that Bush won, period. It's a same-planet different-worlds situation. (Maybe I should say it's that "Bush won, comma," because that certainly isn't the only thing they say.)

            Ken Blackwell, on my (anecdotal) understanding, gets very special "credit" for preventing the distribution of emergency ballots in Franklin County. If emergency ballots had been allowed, the voting machine shortage would have had much less impact. One journal article estimated that about 22,000 votes were lost in Franklin County, of which about 16,000 would have gone to Kerry. (It's back-of-the-envelope, but it was a good-faith attempt to put some bounds on the damage done.) That didn't cost Kerry the election, but it cost tens of thousands of Ohioans their votes.

            The stuff about the numbers being manipulated after being reported is straight CT, as far as I can tell.

            A lot more could be said. It really is complicated.

            Election protection: there's an app for that!
            Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

            by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 03:00:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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