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View Diary: Obama's post-debate polling collapse that isn't (303 comments)

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  •  Your math is wrong (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stroszek, howarddream, kefauver

    The end result is R+3 but that's relative to the previous poll.

    Really it's O+2 absolute in the Ipsos poll.   So if Obama was up +5 pre-debate, then the following numbers:

    O+5
    O+6
    O+5
    O-4
    O-2
    Will average to a result of O+2 which is what the poll states right now (46-44) - net move: O-9

    Of course, the following will also fit the bill:

    O+5
    O+9
    O+3
    O-1
    O-6
    Net move: O-15

    Which is more likely?

    Of note, it's bit bizarre that leaves 10% undecided which is way off from the other polls - and somewhat against the expected result from this point in the campaign and as a result of the debate.

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    by sacrelicious on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 03:36:04 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  alternately, a "big" Obama day could have (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      howarddream, kefauver, sacrelicious

      already rolled off the tracker.

      This is why trying to extrapolate the single day result of an ongoing tracker is ridiculous. We will know in a few days. For now, the other trackers aren't showing a lot of fluctuation while PPP says there's a modest, post-debate bounce for Romney.

    •  another problem with his "math" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacrelicious

      is that the Ipsos poll includes 2 post-debate days, not 1.

      So the numbers could very well be:

      PRE-DEBATE
      +7
      +6
      +5
      +3
      +4
      -----------
      +5

      POST-DEBATE
      +5
      +3
      +4
      -3
      +2
      -----------
      +2

      And with an enormous single-day MOE combined with the fact that Ipsos has been very volatile, the single-day numbers could be even more erratic than this.

      The bottom line is that we don't know right now, but while Romney's numbers will certainly look better in this poll in the next 3-4 days, Obama doesn't necessarily need a "sizable improvement" to avoid a "substantial Romney lead." That assumes that the the single-day numbers only show gradual day-to-day changes, but everything we know about trackers, particularly this tracker, suggests otherwise.

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