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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: The debate, the jobs numbers, and the polls (224 comments)

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  •  we have to accept the debate hurt us (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    maryabein, Steve Magruder

    and I suspect that chart is going to look worse before it - hopefully - gets better. I hope we can all remain in the reality-based community and admit this and move on. The unemployment rate news might help stop the bleeding.

    •  most of the charted trend PRECEDES the debate (12+ / 0-)

      Exactly how large Obama's lead looks on pollster.com depends on the current mix of polls.

      Really, we ought to accept that we have very little evidence so far about what difference the debate made.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 04:51:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  read the story (5+ / 0-)

      the curve is from the oneoff Republican state polls.

      Intrade and IEM are already showing a rebound.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 04:52:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  of course, Romney should gain some support (5+ / 0-)

      and a brief enthusiasm blip on Thursday/Friday may exaggerate the bounce in shorter duration tracking polls early next week.

      But some tightening was expected and, while Obama was poor, I'm not sure a decent performance would have prevented Romney from raising his favorables among debate watchers anyway. This is why first debates are always a challenge for incumbents.

      The notion among more panicked Obama supporters that the President should have gone nuclear on Romney to suppress any favorable growth was probably misguided. It's not easy to make someone look like a cold-hearted vulture when they're standing right next to you and Obama has a lot more to lose from polarization and coming off as unlikable and irritated, especially among the debate's viewing demographic (i.e., older, very white and wealthier voters).

      Obviously, a more energetic performance from Obama would have been welcome, but we were really hoping for a Romney stumble here and we didn't get it.

      •  Two words: Big Bird. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        EcosseNJ, DSPS owl, varro

        While it didn't stop him from winning the debate, it was definitely a "stumble." Like the Clint Eastwood Kerfluffle, it has wicked a lot of the conversation away from what Romney would prefer it be, given plenty of ammo to comedians and political cartoonists, and dominated the talk at the national water cooler, now known as the social media. It has also provided the president with a runway for his own zingers, which he has used well in the last days.

        "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

        by StellaRay on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 07:03:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The bigger point is, I'm sorry to say, is (0+ / 0-)

        that if Obama had turned in a decent performance, just plain old okay...coupled with the new jobs report...this campaign would be basically over and the big donors would be sending their money to the downballot races.

        It's not that Obama can't rebound.  It's that he probably wouldn't have had too, if he had performed better.

    •  Importance of the Debate (0+ / 0-)

      1. If Obama did what he has done in the past and made Romney look inept...the election would be over.
      2. The opposite happened...

      I  still remember the Debate between Carter and Reagan..
      most of us felt Reagan was like Goldwater (he was).
      But Carter came across as a weaker and less articulate...
      I expected the race still to be close....
      I am concerned.
      Andrew Sullivan's assessment right after debate lingers in my mind.

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