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View Diary: GOOD NEWS! Significant evidence that any Romney bounce is small and fading (135 comments)

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  •  Nate Silver's Take. (0+ / 0-)

    Nate is suggesting that Romney's debate performance, at the very least, saved his campaign from a death spiral and has likely put Romney within striking distance.  That seems like a fairly obvious judgement to make - Obama was universally perceived as the loser of the debate and that had to result in a significant benefit for Romney.  More surprising from Nate is his assertion that the bounce has yet to be completely captured in the polls and that it is likely sustaining.  He feel that we have only seen 2/3rds of the bounce.

    I'm not sure I agree with Nate after today's data.  My thought is that Obama would have cratered in the trackers today if the bounce was sustaining -  the Saturday numbers would have continued in Romney's favor and replaced a pro-Obama pre-debate day.  Obama could still crater tomorrow but the likelihood is not as great now.

    This whole thing is almost hard to believe.  One week ago we were on the precipice of annihilating Romney and riding Obama's coattails to a mini Dem wave.  That isn't going to happen now. We're likely looking at a very close race now where voter enthusiasm and GOTV will be the deciding factor.

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 05:46:39 PM PDT

    •  Sucks right? (0+ / 0-)

      like folks were just waiting for the excuse to vote against Obama, and he gives it to them, simply by not being a good bullshit artist. And the righties are outof the woodwork declaring victory already against the anti american muslim. My wife wanted me to visit my mother with her today, and my 60 year ol retired white Teamster cousin was there. he's a nice guy but dumb as a sack of coal. I refused to go; she went there and he got her so upset with his bullshit about having to pay for others food stamps and such. I told her not to argue with these people; the best way to get at that generation ( slightly olde than mine ) is to tell them they all smoked and shot up and snorted so much shit inthe 60's and 70's they have fucking brain damage, and leave it at that.

    •  I'm gonna say this too and I mean it (1+ / 0-)
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      Nate Silver is not GOD. He is wrong sometimes; it has been documented here. If he's right so be it; but the evidence right now is he isn't. Romney is still a goddamned liar, and the president remains a nice guy who people like.

    •  I agree that Nate is wrong here (1+ / 0-)
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      He says this is his personal take not from the numbers. But as another data point, PPP’s new Virginia numbers 50-47 Obama tell me that the bounce is gone and probably receding. Since PPP was in the field in VA through yesterday then the Obama numbers had to be strong on Saturday to keep the nudge down to only a 1 point shift since Thursday/Friday had to be horrible.

    •  Silver is a paid member of the MSM now (1+ / 0-)
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      He writes a column that requires him to opine everyday.  So he takes whatever is shoved at him, adds it to the model, and updates the probabilities based on that.  So if all he gets is a bunch of crap polls from Gravis, WAA and the McLaughlin Group trying to capitalize on a short-term news cycle then that is what carries the day.  It's garbage in, garbage out.   Now that more reputable pollsters are coming in that won't be as much the case.

      What's the difference between Palin and Cheney? Answer: lipstick!

      by Beauregard on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 07:57:59 PM PDT

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