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View Diary: Early Retirement Predictions for 2014 (87 comments)

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  •  Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Circle of Ignornace) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    has had health issues and will be 71 in 2014. If anything, he's more likely to retire than Petri, as he can be sure his seat will be safe. He'd probably be succeeded by inflammatory State Senator Glenn Grothman, who will need every point of the district's R+12 PVI.

    If Petri retires and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald runs (which he probably will in such a case), the seat is vulnerable as Little Fitz is a very unlikable candidate. If she survives this year, State Senator Jessica King (D-Oshkosh) won't have to give her seat up to run for Congress and would give Fitzgerald a tough challenge (Lean R or even Tossup/Tilt R in a neutral year).

    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 07:03:17 PM PDT

    •  Grothman would probably have the edge (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, fearlessfred14

      in the Primary if he ran, but if not, that seat would probably go to Leah Vukmir. In either case, we'd have someone who would continue (and possibly even increase) Sensenbrenner's tradition of embarrassing Wisconsin on the national stage on a routine basis.

      The Jess King vs. little fitz scenario you outlined would be epic. Under the old lines, I might even call it a tossup, but this district got a bit harder when the Moved Ozaukee County into the district.

      •  Hypothetical King vs. Little Fitz matchup in WI-6 (0+ / 0-)

        If you thought Big Fitz was a slimy, condescending, gaffe-prone jerk, Little Fitz is even worse. Jessica King would probably have no problem whatsoever using some of Little Fitz's past statements against him. I'd say that a matchup between King and Little Fitz would probably be Lean R at worst and Tossup/Tilt D at best.

        In regards to WI-5, we're NOT going to win that district barring a cash in the freezer-type scenario, and I highly doubt that will ever happen.

        "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 05:09:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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