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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/8 (morning edition) (391 comments)

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  •  Gallup Sunday Sample was O:59 R:39 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Check my calucluations:

    O: (50+50+50+47+47+47+x)/7=50    x=59
    R: (45+45+45+47+47+47+x)/7=45    x=39

    then tweet this to the world!!!

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:17:54 AM PDT

    •  How do you know what number dropped off? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:20:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  why? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      why must the first three days have been 50-45?

      if they were 50-42 each day, then all Obama needed on Sunday was another 8-9% lead yesterday.

      That would require Romney to have led by 3% in the prior Sunday, which is perfectly possible given volatility of one day samples.

      •  They didn;t have to be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        But since they released the 3 day averages of those 2 subsets, then you can input any numbers you want as long as they average out (so lordMike just put in the 3-day averages).

        Realistically the first 3 days could have been any numbers, but they had to average to 50-45 since gallup told us that.  Same with the second set of 3-days.

        Though overall something doesn't smell right.  59-39, makes no sense.  Is one day weighted more than others?  That's bizarre even with the jobs report.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:27:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Mini-deflator on this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MBishop1

      Likely to be 49.5-45.4. And we only know 3 day averages so they could be 50-51-50-47-48-47 for Obama and 45-46-45-47-48-47 for Romney.

      So at a minimum I can get around 53-40. But still a monster for Obama by any standards.

      •  Oops, miscalc (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1, itskevin

        Of course the very best for Romney would be 45-44-45-47-46-47, which gives him 4 points fewer accumulated over the previous 6 days than I was counting previously. So the absolute bare minimum for Sunday is a 10 point Obama lead around 54-44.

        The maximum of course is off the charts - it could in theory be as much as 64 - 34. Clearly it's going to be a lot nearer the minimum than the maximum, but a very big day, clearly.

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