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View Diary: Gallup 47/47 TIE (246 comments)

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  •  The level of hysteria here is absurd (6+ / 0-)

    Gallup had Romney ahead for most of the race, and the polls were tightening well before the debate. Whatever's going on, the debate probably had very little to do with it.

    Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

    by NoFortunateSon on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:31:32 AM PDT

    •  EXACTLY (10+ / 0-)

      The debate is being used in the MSM to disguise what is really happening here.

      That the so-called Romney bounce has happened only among conservative whites is no accident. There has been no shift whatsover among minorities.

      These people were already planning to vote for Romney. And the debates are being used as a convenient excuse to cover up the real reason...

      •  Yes, and I wonder (0+ / 0-)

        what the women gap looks like post debate---that one is huge as women vote more, and are the largest group out there pro Obama.  Seen any stats on that?

        "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

        by StellaRay on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:47:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NoFortunateSon, StellaRay

      Not enough attention has been paid to the fact that the polls were tightening before the debate.

      Several days before the debate, Romney was coming out of the worst 2 weeks of his campaign.  The impact of the 47% comments was still being felt.  Very few people really expected Obama's lead during that period to remain or grow.  Whatever Obama does, Romney has a legitimate floor of at least 46%.  

      The debate hurt, of course.  Romney might have won if the election occurred the day after.  Contrary to this diarist, it is hardly clear that Romney is still ahead.  And whatever Gallup says, there is considerable evidence from other pollsters that his momentum has already peaked, and may be ebbing.

      My own hunch is that Obama will have a 2-3 point lead in a couple of days, with perhaps a little more strength in half of the swing states.

      •  The problem is voter suppression (0+ / 0-)

        For the Republicans - If their folks didn't show up, that's a total and complete loss - landslide territory.

        If instead it's that our folks who show up in majority - well, they have an answer for that - suppression, caging and outright fraud.

        They need their folks to show to prevent the election from being out of their reach.  Thus the meth-powered Mitt last week at the debate.

        So if it's close it could either be "turned" a la Florida 2000, or at the very least the congressional races could be bolster/saved/stolen/etc.

        --
        Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting

        by sacrelicious on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:04:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is wishfull thinking. I watched the debate, (10+ / 0-)

      and Obama was awful.  No sugar coating here.  He was a disaster.  Lethargic.  Nodding when Romney lied.  Failing to point out those lies.  Looking down and not engaging Romney or the audience.  I couldn't believe what I was seeing.

      It's clear who we want elected.  Now President Obama has to show - during a debate - why he wants to be elected.

      Enough with the lame excuses.  

       

      •  The next debate is a town hall (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        raincrow, NoFortunateSon

        and the Prez will do much better in this format. Plus Romney won't be able to hid his cheat notes.

      •  I didn't get that perception at all (0+ / 0-)

        Romney was good, Obama wasn't all that great, but then again, he never really is at these things.

        Now tell me: which would you rather have? Obama at his best in the debates, and a bad Friday's job report, or the reverse?

        Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

        by NoFortunateSon on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:45:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I want both (0+ / 0-)

          It's not a choice.  The jobs report was going to be whatever the numbers dictated.  Obama's performance was in his control.   Even if he's not as great debater, he can't let Romney spew lots of lies without challenge.

        •  There is no connection between the two (0+ / 0-)

          what do you think, that if Obama had kicked ass in the debate that somehow that would cause the jobs report to suck?  That makes no sense.

          "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

          by Subterranean on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:20:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  It's interesting that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cheerio2

        some Democrats are so eager to join the republicans in the notion that it doesn't matter how bad Romney's campaign has been to date, because he won the debate and that's all that matters.  Obama's WHOLE smart campaign no longer matters, all those successes down the drain, because Mitt won the first debate!

        The president was awful in that debate, no argument.  But to say that those who are keeping this thing in perspective are offering up lame excuses is not the case.

        "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

        by StellaRay on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:57:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Huffington Post - "He Can Win This Thing" (0+ / 0-)

      From the Huffington Post:

      The surprisingly strong debate performance by Republican nominee Mitt Romney against President Barack Obama last week has resulted in a dramatic tightening in the presidential race, according to tracking surveys conducted since Wednesday....

      ...Gallup is not alone in showing a shift to Romney. More than a dozen polls so far have measured voter preferences since the debate, both nationally and within key swing states. While they often differ on the levels of support for each candidate within individual states, they have shown a roughly similar shift toward Romney (4.5 percentage points on average) as the Gallup poll does nationwide.

      That debate may have cooked Big Bird's Goose.  He might want to start looking for another nest if Barack gives a repeat performance.

      If that is hysteria, so be it.  But right now we have a fight.

      Mrick

      Nate Silver:

      Much of the news media’s attention since the debate has been focused on Mr. Obama’s poor performance in Denver. From my vantage point, however, it was more Mr. Romney’s strong performance that stood out.

      If the polls settle in at showing something like a 1- or 2-point lead for Mr. Obama by this point next week, that would be reasonably well in line with where our model and others think that the election “should” be based on economic trends; it would no longer be as appropriate to think of Mr. Romney as being an underachieving candidate.

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